The April CPI report came in just a tad softer than expected, which means mortgage rates should come down slightly and leaves open the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates this summer.
April’s inflation report came in slightly soft, but mostly as expected. The report takes the worst-case scenarios off the table for now, and leaves the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates late in the summer on the table. Homebuyers will get a small amount of relief on mortgage rates.
The numbers: Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (3.6% YoY), in line with expectations and down from the previous 3 months of readings of 0.4% MoM. Including the volatile food and energy categories, headline CPI came in at 0.3% MoM (3.4% YoY), slightly below expectations of 0.4% MoM (3.4% YoY).
Shelter inflation continues to keep overall core inflation elevated. Both rent of primary residence and owner’s equivalent rent (an estimate of how much homeowners would need to pay to rent their home) continued to increase 0.4% MoM. The long awaited deceleration in these categories based on market rent data has yet to fully pass through and may take a while yet. Part of the speculation around when the Fed will start to cut depends on how much they are willing to look past these lagged prices that don’t reflect current inflationary pressure.
Today’s CPI data combined with yesterday’s PPI imply that the April reading of the Fed’s inflation gauge, core PCE, will come in at a level consistent with rate cuts this summer. Yesterday’s PPI data came in hotter than expected overall, but the key components that feed through to core PCE, the key inflation measure for monetary policy, were mixed. Core PCE is largely predictable after seeing CPI and PPI data and is expected to come in around 0.2% MoM.
Another couple of months of similar data would give the Fed enough to start cutting rates. With today’s data, futures markets are now pricing in about a 70% probability of a rate cut in the September 18th Fed meeting and a roughly 30% probability of a cut in the July 31st meeting. A cut by July requires that both of the next two inflation prints are soft and even then, might not leave Fed officials with enough time to set the stage for a cut. But it has the advantage of not starting rate cuts the meeting right before the November election so it’s possible the Fed would lean in that direction.
Regardless of when the Fed starts cutting rates, for homebuyers, today’s data points us back in the direction of expecting mortgage rates to moderate later this year. We should see a small amount of relief in mortgage rates today as financial markets shrug off last month’s fears of further rate hikes. If the next couple of months of data come in similarly, then rates should trend downwards as the Fed solidifies its plans around rate cuts.
United States
Canada