Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers 2 to 1 in Miami, Nashville, and Much of Texas, The Nation’s Strongest Buyer’s Markets

• There were almost half a million more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. in June, equal to 48.5% more. That means buyers hold the negotiating power. 
• The number of homes listed for sale hit its highest level since 2020–but more buyers entered the market, too, which is why the seller-buyer gap didn’t change much from May to June. 
• The strongest buyer’s markets were Miami, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio and Austin.
• There were seven seller’s markets, including several Northeast metros and San Francisco.

There were an estimated 48.5% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in June. That’s down just slightly from 48.7% the month before and a peak of 50.1% in December.

When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically have more negotiating power because they have options. That’s why a market with a lot more sellers than buyers is considered a buyer’s market. We define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market. 

We estimated the number of buyers using proprietary Redfin data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to close of purchase, and MLS data on active listings and pending sales. The estimated number of sellers in the market is simply the number of active listings in the MLS. These estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. See a more detailed methodology here and view an interactive dashboard here. 

It’s important to note that it’s only a buyer’s market for people who can afford to buy. High housing costs and widespread economic uncertainty have caused many would-be buyers to back off in recent years, creating the imbalance of buyers and sellers we see today. 

“The biggest hurdle for Americans looking to buy a home is affordability, but those with the budget to move now–even in the face of record-high home prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates–have the power,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “In most of the country, there are more homes to choose from, fewer bidding wars and more room to negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs. It’s worth shopping around, negotiating aggressively and asking for concessions. Many sellers are more willing to compromise than they have been in years, especially as the buyer’s market drags on and sellers’ expectations are coming back down to earth.”

More Sellers Entered the Market–And More Buyers Did, Too

There were an estimated 1,496,490 home sellers in the market in June–up 0.4% month over month to the highest level since 2020.

Meanwhile, there were an estimated 1,007,735 buyers in the market, up 0.5% from the month before. The fact that the number of sellers and buyers both ticked up explains why the gap between buyers and sellers was mostly unchanged from May to June. 

Homebuyers Have the Upper Hand in 7 of 10 U.S. Metros, Led By Miami and Nashville

Roughly 70% of U.S. housing markets—33 of the 47 U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed—are buyer’s markets. For this report, Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous metros, and excluded three due to insufficient data.

June’s strongest buyer’s market was Miami, which had an estimated 140% more sellers than buyers. Next came Nashville, TN (129% more sellers) and three Texas metros: Houston (124%),  San Antonio (117%) and Austin (101%). 

The nation’s leading buyer’s markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt, where homebuying demand has been slow for several years after the pandemic boom. 

In Miami, the imbalance is especially stark because high home prices, soaring insurance premiums and rising HOA fees for the city’s many condos are sidelining many would-be buyers. The increasing cost of insurance and HOA dues are due in part to the increasing frequency of natural disasters, which are themselves deterring some house hunters. Those same factors are pushing many of Miami’s homeowners to put their houses–and condos–on the market.

In Nashville and Texas metros like Houston, San Antonio and Austin, years of homebuilding have left buyers with more options, while high mortgage rates and affordability challenges are keeping demand in check. A glut of new construction is also a factor in Florida. That means homes are sitting longer, sellers are facing more competition, and buyers have more room to negotiate on price, repairs and concessions.

Just 7 Major Metros Are Seller’s Markets

Seven of the major U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed were seller’s markets in June, tied with May for the highest number in 10 months. The metros that are neither seller’s nor buyer’s markets are considered “balanced” markets. 

Nassau County, NY was the strongest seller’s market, with 38% fewer sellers than buyers. The other six seller’s markets were Milwaukee (-30%), Montgomery County, PA (-21%), Newark, NJ (-21%), New Brunswick, NJ (-21%), Providence, RI (-18%) and San Francisco (-16%).

The places that favor sellers are mostly concentrated in the Northeast because they have one thing in common: a persistent shortage of homes for sale. Unlike many Sun Belt markets, where a construction boom has flooded the market with new inventory, the Northeast has built relatively few homes over the last decade due to limited land, restrictive zoning and slower population growth. Existing homeowners in these markets are also reluctant to sell because many are locked into ultra-low mortgage rates, keeping resale inventory tight. At the same time, buyer demand remains relatively resilient thanks to strong job markets and high household incomes. 

San Francisco also has a lack of newly built homes, but the main thing driving its seller’s market is the Bay Area’s AI boom. A lot of affluent buyers are using their salaries and bonuses from AI jobs to purchase homes, keeping the market competitive. Neighboring San Jose is a balanced market, and while Oakland is a buyer’s market, it is one of the least strong buyer’s markets in the nation, with 24% more sellers than buyers. 

Half of the Country’s Buyer’s Markets Are Tilting More Toward Buyers As Time Goes On

Sixteen of the 33 buyer’s markets in the nation became stronger buyer’s markets in June.

The seller surplus increased most in Houston, which was June’s third-strongest buyer’s market. There were 124% more sellers than buyers in Houston up from roughly 104% the month before. The next-biggest monthly increase was in Orlando, FL, which had 98% more sellers than buyers in June, up from an 81% seller surplus the month before. Miami, the country’s strongest buyer’s market, rounds out the top three (140%, up from 127% the month before). 

Anaheim, CA had 25% more home sellers than buyers in June, down from 39% the month before–making it the metro where the seller surplus shrunk most. Next comes neighboring Riverside, CA, with 62% more sellers than buyers, down from 73%. Rounding out the top three is Tampa, FL (70%, down from 80%).