The Fed essentially took a March interest-rate cut off the table, which means mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer. But we still expect rates to gradually decline by the end of the year, making buying a home a bit more affordable.
The Fed announced they’re holding interest rates steady near a two-decade high during its January 31 meeting, as expected. But the part of the press conference with potential to move markets–and move mortgage rates–was the Fed’s commentary on how soon they expect to cut interest rates.
While some investors anticipated a rate cut as soon as March, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated they’re unlikely to have enough confidence in the direction of the economy to cut rates by then. The Fed is taking two main factors into account: Inflation, which is moving toward the 2% target but is still higher and less stable than they’d prefer, and the overall strength of the labor market and economy. Powell didn’t take a March rate cut completely off the table, but indicated that March is “not the base case” and they would need unexpectedly good economic data to cut rates that soon. That means the first rate cut will probably come in May, at the earliest.
The market isn’t loving the Fed’s commentary: Interest rates jumped and the stock market fell immediately after Powell signaled a March rate cut is unlikely. Futures markets marked down the probability of a March rate cut, from 50% to about 33%.
The Fed conference was disappointing but not devastating for the housing market. Delaying interest rate cuts means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer.
A separate piece of economic news is likely to have the opposite effect on mortgage rates
But the January 31 announcement from the U.S. Treasury that they’re not expecting to increase the supply of treasuries was welcome news for the housing market. Less supply of treasuries means high prices and therefore lower interest rates. On balance, this means mortgage rates may hold steady as these two economic events work in opposite directions.
Mortgage rates will probably hold steady in the near term, then come down gradually throughout 2024
Homebuyers and sellers aren’t likely to see much impact in the next few weeks. But as we get closer to the next Fed meeting in mid-March, we’ll see more movement in mortgage rates as the odds of a rate cut either rise or fall. Powell said in the conference that Fed officials will telegraph their likely actions ahead of the actual meeting.
Zooming out to 2024 as a whole, today’s Fed press conference made it clear they will cut interest rates at some point this year. Regardless of any short-term volatility in mortgage rates, we expect rates to come down gradually throughout the year.
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