At the request of Yahoo! Finance, Redfin built a model that analyzed a sample of sales of Donald Trump-branded condos to similar units, controlling for location, size, number of bedrooms and other factors. We looked at selling success metrics before and after Trump’s presidential campaign began to see whether there was any correlation between his political presence and how well homes in his buildings were selling. Comparing the first five months of 2015, before Trump announced his candidacy, to the first five months of 2016:
- In 2015, Trump units had a sale price premium of 6.8 percent compared with similar homes. In 2016, Trump units no longer exhibited a sale price premium.
- Looking at prices on a per-square-foot basis, Trump units sold at a premium of 9.0 percent or $97 compared with similar units in 2015. In 2016, the effect became insignificant.
- In 2015, Trump condos asked for 1.6 percent more than they eventually sold for compared to similar homes. In 2016, there was no significant difference.
- In 2015, Trump units spent 10 more days on the market than comparable homes. In 2016, the effect was little changed, with Trump homes spending nine more days on the market than comparable homes.
Can we attribute these differences to the Trump name and how its meaning has changed in the past year? Not necessarily.
“Trump condos have lost the price advantage they enjoyed before the campaign and are starting to sell similarly to comparable condos. While it’s tempting to blame politics, it’s likely that market conditions have changed, making it harder for uber-luxurious condos to fetch top dollar,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The luxury market has been fighting a chill since late last year and even the gold-plated faucets in Trump’s bathrooms can’t overcome a slowdown in demand from wealthy buyers caused by the rocky global markets in 2016.”
Using data from real estate multiple listing services, Redfin examined condo sales from January 1, 2015 through May 31, 2015 as well as the same period for 2016. Non-Trump unit sales were included if they were within 0.5 miles of a Trump tower, and sold in the same time period. The analysis controlled for factors including size, number of bathrooms and bedrooms, age of the building, state, monthly homeowners’ association dues, as well as various amenities (i.e. if there’s a view, whether it’s a waterfront property, and parking details). A total of 1,081 sales were included in the analysis, 161 of which were Trump condo units.
Redfin’s analysis was limited to sales in Hollywood Beach, FL; Sunny Isles Beach, FL; Honolulu, HI; Chicago, IL; Jersey City, NJ; Las Vegas, NV; New Rochelle, NY; Shrub Oak, NY and White Plains, NY. Multiple-listing data was unavailable for transactions of Trump properties in Manhattan, Stamford, CT and outside of the U.S.
Trump’s real-estate portfolio is listed here.