30% of Redfin.com users looked to move metros last month, down from 32% at the start of 2021 but still above the 26% share we saw before the pandemic.
Nationwide, 29.5% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metropolitan area in October 2021. That’s down from a peak of 31.5% at the beginning of the year, but still higher than the 26% levels we saw before the coronavirus pandemic.The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 111 metro areas in October, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user’s searches. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.
“With many employers making remote work permanent, we expect people to continue relocating at a higher rate than they did before the pandemic,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “What will likely change are the places people choose to relocate to. Popular Sunbelt migration destinations including Phoenix, Atlanta and Austin will probably fall out of favor as skyrocketing home prices have rendered them less affordable. Northern cities like Columbus, Harrisburg and Indianapolis will likely rise in popularity as homebuyers seek better bang for their buck.”
Miami, Phoenix and Sacramento Are the Top Metros Homebuyers Want to Move to
Miami, Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Tampa were the most popular migration destinations of any major U.S. metros in October, meaning they had the largest net inflows. A net inflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.
While Sunbelt cities remain popular, four of the 10 top metros people wanted to relocate to in October—Sacramento, Las Vegas, Dallas and Atlanta—saw fewer people looking to move in than a year earlier. Sacramento, for example, saw a net inflow of 4,904 Redfin.com users, down from a net inflow of 6,369 in October 2020.
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow, October 2021† | Net Inflow, October 2020 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, October 2021 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, October 2020 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Miami, FL | 6,897 | 2,226 | 32.1% | 26.0% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
2 | Phoenix, AZ | 6,343 | 5,554 | 35.8% | 36.2% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
3 | Sacramento, CA | 4,904 | 6,369 | 41.0% | 49.7% | San Francisco, CA | Seattle, WA |
4 | Las Vegas, NV | 4,713 | 5,751 | 42.6% | 52.5% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
5 | Tampa, FL | 4,365 | 2,896 | 46.2% | 55.7% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
6 | Dallas, TX | 3,717 | 4,247 | 25.2% | 31.2% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
7 | San Antonio, TX | 3,142 | 1,558 | 42.6% | 43.3% | Houston, TX | Los Angeles, CA |
8 | Cape Coral, FL | 3,025 | 2,050 | 68.9% | 75.8% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
9 | Atlanta, GA | 3,019 | 4,629 | 20.0% | 26.4% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
10 | North Port, FL | 2,876 | 1,536 | 66.1% | 77.9% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in October 2021
†Among the 2 million users sampled for this analysis only
San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York Are the Top Metros Homebuyers Want to Leave
San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle saw more Redfin.com users looking to leave than any other major metro areas in October, meaning they had the biggest net outflows. A net outflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.
Dense, expensive cities often experience the biggest exodus of residents—a trend that has intensified during the pandemic as more Americans have been able to move to more affordable places thanks to remote work.
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow, October 2021† | Net Outflow, October 2020‡ | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, October 2021 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, October 2020 | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | San Francisco, CA | 31,820 | 25,956 | 22.4% | 23.6% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
2 | Los Angeles, CA | 26,035 | 16,134 | 19.2% | 17.8% | San Diego, CA | Phoenix, AZ |
3 | New York, NY | 16,921 | 28,046 | 26.1% | 34.8% | Philadelphia, PA | Philadelphia, PA |
4 | Washington, DC | 11,805 | 7,919 | 14.6% | 12.7% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
5 | Seattle, WA | 8,706 | 1,102 | 15.7% | 13.4% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
6 | Boston, MA | 5,637 | -331 | 15.6% | 11.7% | Portland, ME | Portland, ME |
7 | Chicago, IL | 4,107 | 4,916 | 12.4% | 12.2% | Cape Coral, FL | Cape Coral, FL |
8 | Denver, CO | 1,865 | 2,706 | 25.5% | 26.9% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
9 | Detroit, MI | 1,586 | 280 | 25.8% | 20.9% | Grand Rapids, MI | Chicago, IL |
10 | Minneapolis, MN | 842 | -870 | 20.5% | 17.1% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in October 2021
†Among the 2 million users sampled for this analysis only
‡Negative values indicate a net inflow