Nationally, a record 29.4% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro in October and November. Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta were the most popular destinations, while nearly twice as many people looked to leave Washington, D.C. as last year.
Nationwide, 29.4% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro area in October and November, up from 25.4% a year before and the highest share since Redfin started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017.
As the coronavirus pandemic and the shift toward remote work continues across the country, more people than ever are looking to make long-distance moves, often from expensive coastal regions to affordable inland areas where they can find more space for less money.
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas in October and November, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must make up at least 80% of the user’s searches.
More people are moving to Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta than last year, partly because of remote work
Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta were the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users looking to move to a different metro in October and November, meaning those places had bigger net inflows than any other major metro in the U.S. A net inflow means more people looked to move in that leave, while a net outflow means more people looked to leave than move in.
While those places are typically the most popular destinations, largely due to their affordability and relatively warm weather, the number of out-of-towners searching for homes in all five metros has skyrocketed since last year.
That’s especially true in Austin. In October and November, net inflow to the Austin metro area was double the same time last year.
“There has been a massive influx of buyers coming to Austin this year, mostly people who work in tech or other industries that allow them to work remotely,” said local Redfin agent Andrew Vallejo. “About 80% of my buyers are from the East Coast or the West Coast, specifically from the Bay Area. The number of people moving in from California picked up even more after the election, and a lot of people have newfound confidence in the Austin housing market because of the upcoming Tesla factory.”
“I’ve also noticed a lot of people come to Austin, rent a house for a couple months, then fall in love with the walkability and charm of the city and move here permanently,” Vallejo said. “The number of out-of-towners makes the market difficult for locals, especially if they don’t work in tech. A lot of local homebuyers have to look in the far-flung suburbs to find a home, or they have to turn to family members for cash to make their offers more competitive.”
The Bay Area is the top origin for people moving to Austin from out of town. The number of people relocating from Northern California to Austin is likely to increase in the near future as companies like Oracle and Hewlett Packard move from Silicon Valley to the Texas capitol.
Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle and New York are the next most popular origins for people relocating to Austin.
Meanwhile, there has been a nearly 70% uptick in net inflow of people looking to relocate to Sacramento and Las Vegas. In Phoenix and Atlanta, the increase from last year is nearly 50%.
The share of Redfin.com users searching for homes from outside the metro has increased in all of those metros except Atlanta. The increase is particularly significant in Austin, where more than 38% of all home searches were from users outside the metro in October and November, up from 30.9% a year before.
The Bay Area is the top origin for Redfin.com users moving to Sacramento and Austin, Los Angeles is the top origin for people moving to Las Vegas and Phoenix, and New York is the top origin for people moving to Atlanta.
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow† | Net Inflow Last Year | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro Last Year | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacramento, CA | 8,202 | 4,985 | 49.4% | 43.9% | San Francisco, CA | Reno, NV |
| 2 | Las Vegas, NV | 7,713 | 4,583 | 52.1% | 46.4% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 3 | Phoenix, AZ | 7,667 | 5,129 | 36.2% | 33.4% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Austin, TX | 7,053 | 3,102 | 38.4% | 30.9% | San Francisco, CA | San Francisco, CA |
| 5 | Atlanta, GA | 6,442 | 4,534 | 26.6% | 27.1% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 6 | Dallas, TX | 6,063 | 2,603 | 31.5% | 25.1% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Nashville, TN | 4,512 | 2,291 | 40.6% | 33.9% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 8 | Tampa, FL | 4,105 | 2,284 | 56.4% | 52.9% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
| 9 | Miami, FL | 3,193 | 1,584 | 26.4% | 24.5% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | Cape Coral, FL | 3,167 | 1,407 | 75.3% | 74.5% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in October and November 2020 †Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
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Nearly twice as many Redfin.com users are leaving Washington, D.C. as last year
New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Chicago top the list of places Redfin.com users were looking to leave in October and November, as they did in the second and third quarters of this year.
There has been a 95% uptick in the net outflow of people looking to leave Washington, D.C. since October and November of last year.
“A lot of folks who live in small urban condos and houses are realizing they can get more space for their money outside the city,” said local Redfin agent Leslie White. “Given the newfound freedom to work from home, a lot of people are buying bigger homes with outdoor space in the suburbs or even farther out if they only need to commute into the city once or twice a month.”
Meanwhile, there has been an 82% increase in the number of people looking to leave Chicago. In Los Angeles, the uptick was 45%, and in New York and San Francisco it was more than 30%.
All five of those metros also saw an increase in the share of local Redfin.com users searching for homes in a different metro area.
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow† | Net Outflow Last Year | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere Last Year | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York, NY | 37,305 | 24,402 | 35.2% | 37.1% | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | 33,520 | 25,356 | 24.0% | 23.0% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | 20,821 | 14,283 | 18.0% | 16.5% | San Diego, CA | Las Vegas, NV |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 10,228 | 5,246 | 13.0% | 10.8% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Chicago, IL | 5,414 | 2,976 | 12.3% | 10.2% | South Bend, IN | South Bend, IN |
| 6 | Denver, CO | 4,408 | 2,264 | 27.7% | 23.1% | Seattle, WA | Seattle, WA |
| 7 | Seattle, WA | 2,495 | -2,907 | 14.1% | 11.2% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 8 | Milwaukee, WI | 2,395 | 796 | 42.0% | 38.4% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | San Diego, CA | 2,256 | -2,114 | 25.7% | 18.7% | Los Angeles, CA | Phoenix, AZ |
| 10 | Indianapolis, IN | 1,416 | 354 | 39.5% | 30.6% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in October and November 2020 †Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
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Canada