More Jobs And More Workers. What Does It Mean For Mortgage Rates?

There was good news on the jobs front today. Employers added 215,000 people to their payrolls in March and more people started looking for work, a sign of growing confidence in the labor market. Wages ticked up and unemployment held steady, according to the Labor Department.

Homebuilders were on a roll, too, adding lots of skilled workers, including 12,000 specialty contractors. In all, there were nearly 31,000 more residential construction jobs in March than there were a year earlier, a 4.5 percent increase. That’s good news for housing and the economy.
“These jobs not only helped feed strong employment growth but also provided a lift to the housing market, where the dearth of homes for sale has stymied homebuyers,” Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson said. “Much of the decline in new housing starts is attributable the lack of skilled construction workers, so the 12,000-worker increase in residential specialty trade contractors is welcome news.”

Wait, there’s more

All that hiring is getting more people off the couch. The share of working-age adults employed or looking for work rose to 63 percent, the highest level in two years. And the past two years of job growth is the best run we’ve had since the late 1990s, said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
“This is no mean feat,” Behravesh said. “This is a vote of confidence on the part of workers regarding the health of the U.S. economy.”

So what?

The monthly jobs report is a critical measure of the U.S. economy and has the power to influence mortgage rates. In theory, good news generally boosts the odds that interest rates will go up.
That’s not likely this time. At the moment, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her team at the central bank are more worried about the anemic outlook overseas. Most people are betting Fed policymakers won’t raise rates when they meet later this month.

“This is another solid jobs report that is likely to have little impact on the Fed decision later this month,” said Curt Long, chief economist of the National Association of Federal Credit Unions. For Yellen & Co., “concerns lie elsewhere, and the odds of an April rate hike are extremely remote.”