Hot or Not? Redfin Tests the Temperature of January’s Hottest Neighborhood Predictions

Real Estate News & Analysis

Hot or Not? Redfin Tests the Temperature of January’s Hottest Neighborhood Predictions

In January, we published our annual Hottest Neighborhoods report, identifying the 10 neighborhoods in the country that we predicted would see fast growth in home values this year, based on Redfin.com user data and insights from local Redfin agents. Nine of the 10 neighborhoods in the January report are in San Jose.

Now we’re checking back to see if these California neighborhoods outperformed in home value growth as predicted. We’re also identifying the hottest three neighborhoods in the largest metro areas to close out the year.

18.9-Hot-or-Not-Revisiting-the-Hottest-Neighborhoods-of-2018-2x

To assess the accuracy of our predictions, we calculated median home sale price growth in each neighborhood between December 2017 and July 2018. If home prices grew, the neighborhood was confirmed “hot.” If home prices declined, the neighborhood was deemed “cool.”

Rank Neighborhood City Metro Area Median Sale Price  (July 2018) Median Sale Price (December 2017) Percent Change Temperature Avg Sale-to-List Price Ratio* % of Homes Sold Above List Price*
1 Bucknall San Jose San Jose $1,661,500 $1,565,000 6.2% Hot 100.1% 89.0%
2 Cambrian San Jose San Jose $1,320,000 $1,244,000 6.1% Hot 108.3% 73.7%
3 White Oak Campbell San Jose $967,500 $1,010,000 -4.2% Cool 109.0% 75.0%
4 Ortega Sunnyvale San Jose $1,237,000 $1,920,000 -35.6% Cool 110.8% 86.2%
5 West Santa Clara Santa Clara San Jose $1,400,000 $1,237,500 13.1% Hot 112.4% 82.4%
6 Sunnyvale West Sunnyvale San Jose $2,106,500 $1,945,000 8.3% Hot 114.3% 89.2%
7 Lakewood Sunnyvale San Jose $1,355,000 $1,200,000 12.9% Hot 100.1% 87.0%
8 Sunnyside San Francisco San Francisco $1,387,750 $1,272,500 9.1% Hot 100.3% 91.0%
9 Blacow Fremont San Jose $1,060,999 $1,005,000 5.6% Hot 107.6% 81.0%
10 Rex Manor Mountain View San Jose $1,670,000 $1,500,000 11.3% Hot 100.2% 100.0%
Median sale price growth between December 2017 and July 2018.


Eight of our 10 picks for the Hottest Neighborhoods in 2018 were spot on with price growth above 5 percent between December 2017 and July 2018. Our top pick, Bucknall (San Jose), saw prices grow 6.2 percent during that period, and 89 percent of homes sold above their asking price. Our second pick, Cambrian (San Jose), saw 6.1 percent price growth.

Redfin Silicon Valley agent Kalena Masching is not surprised that these neighborhoods saw strong price growth. Masching believes that both Cambrian and Bucknall will continue to be hot neighborhoods.

“Especially as buyers are priced out of the peninsula areas, many of these neighborhoods offer relative price savings,” said Masching. “Bucknall offers a great community vibe. It’s very walkable and also has a desirable commute. Homes in Cambrian are more affordable relative to Bucknall and the nearby areas with similar amenities. New tech campuses moving into downtown and West San Jose provide Cambrian homeowners an easy commute without being right in the middle of the city.”

West Santa Clara (Santa Clara), Lakewood (Sunnyvale), and Rex Manor (Mountain View) all experienced price growth above 10 percent.

Masching explains, “Lakewood has been hot for years, especially with home prices about a million dollars less than nearby Sunnyvale West. Similarly, Rex Manor is significantly more affordable than the surrounding parts of Mountain View. It’s a great place to get your foot in the door if you’re under a $2 million budget and want to be in Mountain View.”

White Oak and Ortega were the two predicted hottest neighborhoods, where prices actually declined between December and July.

“I’ve noticed in Ortega that single family homes are staying on the market a lot longer. Additionally, almost all of the sales from May and June were townhomes and condos, which has a lowering effect on the prices” said Masching.

What Neighborhoods Are Hot in your Metro Area?

Below we’ve ranked the top three hottest neighborhoods in each major metro area so you can see what places in your city are likely to be the most popular among buyers for the remainder of 2018. These places were identified using our Hottest Neighborhoods algorithm, which ranks neighborhoods based on increases in favorites and visits to home listings on Redfin.com.

Metro Area Rank Neighborhood Median Sale Price* Average Sale-to-List Price Ratio* % of Homes that Sold Above List Price* Median Days on Market*
Atlanta, GA
1 Mozley Park $226,950 95.8% 31.3% 13.5
2 Decatur Heights $362,000 98.8% 28.6% 11
3 Sandtown $312,750 97.2% 14.3% 90
Austin, TX
1 North Lamar $237,000 98.5% 42.1% 7
2 Southeast Austin $230,000 100.1% 35.6% 6.5
3 Pecan Springs Springdale $320,000 98.9% 37.0% 10.5
Bakersfield, CA
1 Silver Creek $235,000 99.1% 2.6% 18
2 Tevis Ranch $254,990 100.1% 8.0% 31
3 Stockdale West $299,950 100.0% 8.3% 39.5
Baltimore, MD
1 River Hill $701,250 99.1% 16.7% 35
2 Harpers Choice $311,250 99.8% 30.4% 36
3 Brooklyn Park $185,950 98.5% 29.4% 40
Boston, MA
1 Suffolk Square $380,000 106.6% 84.2% 8
2 West Street-River Street $440,275 101.7% 61.8% 11
3 Southern Mattapan $397,000 100.1% 22.2% 17
Charlotte, NC
1 Moores Chapel $168,250 94.8% 12.5% 39
2 Belmont $313,875 99.0% 31.3% 41
3 Villa Heights $382,500 98.7% 31.8% 40
Chicago, IL
1 McKinley Park $257,875 98.5% 18.8% 60.5
2 Chicago Lawn $130,000 101.0% 37.9% 43
3 Back of the Yards $80,000 103.7% 44.8% 23
Cincinnati, OH
1 Turpin Hills $369,000 98.0% 20.0% 72
2 Mount Airy $125,000 97.1% 21.6% 52
3 Mount Lookout $375,000 97.8% 17.9% 59
Cleveland, OH
1 Boulevard $307,500 95.8% 0.0% 70
2 Moreland $73,000 92.5% 0.0% 121
3 Fernway $236,000 95.4% 5.0% 82
Denver, CO
1 Genesse Central $934,500 98.9% 10.0% 24
2 Turnberry $395,000 99.8% 23.1% 23
3 Edgewater $505,000 102.6% 66.7% 5.5
Fort Lauderdale, FL
1 Oakwood $391,850 96.3% 16.7% 53
2 Crossings $380,000 97.9% 16.7% 48
3 Lagomar $342,550 97.4% 4.2% 44
Hampton Roads, VA
1 Old Towne $172,250 94.9% 0.0% 84
2 Park Place $169,900 96.2% 29.3% 65
3 Colonial Place-Riverview $275,000 98.6% 17.1% 29
Houston, TX
1 Fourth Ward $311,000 97.9% 6.9% 57
2 Kashmere Gardens $76,500 88.4% 0.0% 49
3 Langham Creek $149,500 98.8% 25.0% 10.5
Jacksonville, FL
1 Biscayne $169,500 99.3% 33.3% 42
2 Jamestown $234,900 97.7% 6.7% 21
3 Duclay $183,000 98.6% 25.0% 29.5
Las Vegas, NV
1 Cadence $397,349 98.9% 9.5% 46
2 Valley West $291,000 98.8% 33.3% 47
3 The Crossing $316,500 98.4% 32.7% 44
Long Island, NY
1 East Hills $1,150,000 95.2% 8.3% 44.5
2 Gordon Heights $256,500 102.0% 54.6% 29
3 Glen Head $660,000 98.2% 23.5% 35
Los Angeles, CA
1 East Pasadena $1,108,500 98.4% 23.5% 57
2 Citrus Grove $662,500 99.4% 50.0% 54.5
3 Amar-Lark Ellen $400,000 101.7% 60.0% 37
Memphis, TN
1 Lakes of Forest Hill $279,900 97.2% 10.3% 43.5
2 Voillintine-Evergreen $168,500 96.6% 15.6% 36.5
3 Normandy Meadows East $240,000 99.7% 34.8% 28
Miami, FL
1 Crestview $272,500 96.3% 18.2% 24
2 Buena Vista $309,000 95.1% 19.4% 39
3 Silver Bluff $450,000 95.5% 5.7% 83.5
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
1 West Frogtown $173,050 104.7%

 

66.7% 21
2 Bryn Mawr $396,000 98.2% 38.9% 21
3 Fern Hill $415,000 102.2% 47.4% 29.5
New Orleans, LA
1 Irish Channel $472,500 98.6% 11.1% 79
2 Dillard $220,000 91.9% 0.0% 79
3 Gentilly Terrace $179,770 96.3% 17.1% 64
Oakland, CA
1 Grimmer $1,070,000 115.2% 100.0% 10
2 Merriewood $1,255,000 122.7% 82.1% 14
3 North Fremont $1,210,000 113.8% 93.6% 9
Orange County, CA
1 College Park East $876,250 99.7% 50.0% 38
2 Travis Ranch $910,000 99.4% 28.6% 52
3 Covenant Hills Village $1,670,000 97.2% 0.0% 89
Orlando, FL
1 Randall-Johnson $350,800 98.9% 14.8% 35.5
2 Falcon Trace $290,000 97.3% 10.5% 46
3 Live Oak Reserve $466,450 98.8% 16.7% 16
Philadelphia, PA
1 Ardmore $715,000 97.2% 11.8% 70
2 Somerton $99,500 97.7% 37.0% 36
3 Villanova $240,000 97.9% 11.5% 76
Phoenix, AZ
1 Emperor Estates $322,500 98.9% 28.6% 43
2 O’Neil Ranch $190,500 101.1% 61.1% 43.5
3 Central City South $139,000 98.2% 31.6% 34
Pittsburgh, PA
1 East Liberty $346,000 94.3% 11.1% 81
2 Reserve Township $137,900 98.0% 28.6% 58
3 Squirrel Hill North $617,500 94.2% 21.4% 80
Portland, OR
1 Overlook $450,250 101.6% 41.7% 7
2 Maplewood $550,000 100.1% 25.0% 9
3 Reed $478,750 100.5% 66.7% 23
Providence, RI
1 Hebronville $306,000 100.7% 33.3% 29
2 Flint $205,000 97.4% 34.5% 16
3 East Side Attleboro $280,000 100.0% 48.0% 31
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
1 Warm Sands $321,900 97.9% 9.1% 63
2 Alessandro Heights $730,000 98.0% 17.7% 108
3 San Antonio Heights $847,000 98.5% 35.7% 68
Sacramento, CA
1 Midtown $664,250 100.2% 43.8% 58.5
2 Howe Edison $260,000 101.6% 77.8% 8
3 Colonial Village North $285,000 101.0% 41.7% 23
San Antonio, TX
1 Denver Heights $122,950 96.0% 0.0% 43
2 Whispering Oaks $274,000 100.2% 42.9% 24
3 Encino Park $290,939 99.9% 25.0% 30.5
San Diego, CA
1 La Playa $2,200,000 95.7% 10.0% 76
2 Egger Highlands $500,000 99.4% 31.3% 26
3 La Costa Oaks $1,355,025 99.8% 50.0% 14
San Francisco, CA
1 Millbrae $1,653,000 115.7% 85.7% 14
2 Mission Terrace $1,150,000 115.3% 84.6% 18
3 Oceanview $1,177,500 121.1% 83.3% 19
San Jose, CA
1 Monta Loma-Farley-Rock Street $1,639,000 118.8% 96.8% 8
2 Midtown $1,025,000 110.1% 85.0% 15
3 San Antonio-Rengstorff-del Medio $1,105,000 113.8% 92.0% 12
Seattle, WA
1 Ravenna $930,000 108.5% 76.2% 7
2 Montlake $1,165,000 103.9% 53.3% 8
3 Atlantic $728,000 101.8% 35.6% 8.5
St. Louis, MO
1 Warson Woods $445,000 98.9% 25.0% 37
2 Clifton Heights $174,900 102.1% 57.1% 14
3 Rock Hill $229,000 100.0% 38.5% 34.5
Tampa, FL
1 Old West Tampa $216,500 95.4% 8.3% 42.5
2 K Bar Ranch $369,900 98.3% 8.0% 75
3 Carver City-Lincoln Gardens $175,500 95.8% 6.7% 23
Tucson, AZ
1 Sabino Springs $363,000 98.2% 0.0% 118
2 Colonia del Valle $177,000 97.2% 14.3% 57
3 Keeling $139,000 97.6% 9.1% 45
Washington, DC
1 Arlington Ridge $767,000 99.4% 21.9% 30
2 Brentwood / Brookland / Langdon $589,000 100.1% 43.4% 33
3 Jefferson $506,250 99.9% 42.6% 34
West Palm Beach, FL
1 Boca West $130,000 84.2% 2.7% 126
2 Parrot Cove $332,000 95.2% 0.0% 74
3 Kelsey City $215,000 94.3% 3.7% 67

 

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