Phoenix is the most popular destination for Redfin.com users looking to move away from expensive coastal cities. Some out-of-town buyers are shifting their search from Texas to Arizona after recent winter storms.
Nationwide, 31.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro in January and February, up from 26.1% during the same time period last year and the highest share since Redfin started tracking migration in 2017.
The share of Redfin.com users searching for homes outside their metro has steadily increased since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with remote work allowing homebuyers to prioritize affordability and living near family and friends. For many buyers, that means they now have the freedom to relocate to a different part of the country.
“Migration is on the upswing even as vaccines roll out, signaling that the rise in moving from one part of the country to another is likely to outlast the pandemic,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Although some coronavirus-driven moves will be temporary as people return to the office or go back to living alone after staying with their families, for many Americans one long-lasting effect of the pandemic and remote work is the freedom to live where they want to live.”
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas in January and February, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must make up at least 80% of the user’s searches.
The uptick in migration is driven by homebuyers moving to Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas
Phoenix, Austin, Las Vegas, Dallas and Miami had the biggest net inflows of Redfin.com users of any major metro in the U.S. in January and February, meaning they were the most popular destinations for people looking to move to a different area. A net inflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave, out of a sample of 2 million users.
Affordable inland destinations and parts of Florida are typically the most popular destinations for migrants, a trend that has accelerated during the pandemic. The net inflow of Redfin.com users searching for a home from out of town has increased significantly from last year in all of the top 10 destinations.
“More and more people are moving into Phoenix; the trend is only becoming more intense,” said local Redfin agent Thomas Wiederstein. “More than half of my buyers are coming from out of state, mostly from California. And with the recent winter storms in places like Dallas, several of my newer clients are out-of-state buyers who have shifted their home search from Texas to Arizona. Buyers from other states tend to make stronger offers because they have more cash on hand, and that makes it extremely difficult for locals to compete.”
Los Angeles is the top origin for people moving to Phoenix, Las Vegas and Dallas, while San Francisco is the top origin for those relocating to Austin. The typical home in Los Angeles sold for $745,000 in February, and the typical home in San Francisco sold for $1.4 million. Meanwhile, the typical home in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Dallas sells for less than $350,000.
Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow, January and February 2021 | Net Inflow, January and February 2020 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, January and February 2021 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, January and February 2020 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix, AZ | 10,471 | 7,319 | 38.9% | 35.7% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2 | Austin, TX | 9,564 | 3,941 | 43.6% | 32.6% | San Francisco, CA | San Francisco, CA |
| 3 | Las Vegas, NV | 9,056 | 5,706 | 53.1% | 47.9% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Dallas, TX | 7,801 | 3,545 | 33.3% | 26.3% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 5 | Miami, FL | 7,487 | 2,399 | 32.0% | 26.6% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 6 | Atlanta, GA | 7,415 | 5,113 | 26.8% | 26.8% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 7 | Sacramento, CA | 7,414 | 4,861 | 48.3% | 44.4% | San Francisco, CA | Reno, NV |
| 8 | Tampa, FL | 6,018 | 3,186 | 60.3% | 56.0% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
| 9 | Cape Coral, FL | 5,575 | 2,078 | 77.0% | 74.4% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 10 | Orlando, FL | 4,824 | 1,982 | 58.5% | 52.1% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in January and February 2021
†Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
Homebuyers are leaving New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles for areas that are relatively close—but more affordable
New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Seattle top the list of places Redfin.com users are looking to leave, with the biggest net outflows of Redfin.com users in January and February. A net outflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in, out of a sample of 2 million users.
Expensive coastal cities typically have the highest net outflows, with more and more homebuyers looking to leave those places since the pandemic began a year ago. The net outflow of Redfin.com users from New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles has increased significantly from a year ago, and it has more than doubled in Washington, D.C. and Seattle.
For Redfin.com users who leave New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, the most popular destinations are nearby metro areas with comparatively affordable housing. Philadelphia, where the typical home sold for $238,000 in February, is the most popular destination for people leaving the New York metro, where the typical home in the metro sold for $590,000. People leaving San Francisco are most likely to search for homes in Sacramento, where the typical home sold for $490,000 in February, and people leaving Los Angeles are most likely to go to San Diego, where the typical home sold for $685,000.
Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow, January and February 2021 | Net Outflow, January and February 2020 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, January and February 2021 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, January and February 2020 | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York, NY | 37,894 | 26,714 | 34.7% | 36.3% | Philadelphia, PA | Philadelphia, PA |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | 35,440 | 23,868 | 24.1% | 21.7% | Sacramento, CA | Austin, TX |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | 23,473 | 13,913 | 18.5% | 16.4% | San Diego, CA | Las Vegas, NV |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 14,190 | 6,446 | 14.7% | 11.6% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Seattle, WA | 8,445 | 3,357 | 16.4% | 13.1% | Phoenix, AZ | Phoenix, AZ |
| 6 | Chicago, IL | 7,775 | 3,797 | 13.7% | 10.4% | Cape Coral, FL | Cape Coral, FL |
| 7 | Denver, CO | 6,242 | 2,979 | 29.9% | 23.6% | Seattle, WA | Seattle, WA |
| 8 | Boston, MA | 3,751 | 178 | 14.9% | 11.5% | Portland, ME | Portland, ME |
| 9 | Milwaukee, WI | 2,296 | 1,031 | 42.6% | 38.6% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 10 | Indianapolis, IN | 1,891 | 535 | 42.3% | 33.1% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in January and February 2021
†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
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