Housing Market Update: Home Prices Climb 15% Even as Growth in Pending Sales & New Listings Slowed Amid Election Uncertainty

Pending sales (+31%) and new listings (+7%) were both still up from a year earlier.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas during the 4-week period ending November 8:

• The median home sale price increased 15% year over year to $321,553, the highest on record. Home prices continue to buck their typical seasonal pattern, rising 16% year over year in the single week ending November 8. The national median home price typically peaks the first week of July and declines through the fall, but this year since the four-week period ending July 5, home prices have increased 7.1%. Over that same period in 2018 and 2019, prices declined 4.1%.
• Pending home sales climbed 31% year over year even as the number of pending sales continued a typical seasonal decline. In the single week ending November 8, pending sales were up far less—19% from the same week a year earlier. This is the smallest single-week year-over-year gain in pending sales in 16 weeks.
• New listings of homes for sale were up 7% from a year earlier, but also up far less in the single week ending November 8, just 1.6%—the smallest single-week year-over-year gain in new listings in eight weeks.
• Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 29% from 2019 to a new all-time low.
• 43% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market. This measure typically peaks in April or May and declines through the end of the year, but this year it has held relatively steady since late June and is currently 13 points higher than it was at this time a year ago.
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, rose to 99.5%—an all-time high and 1.5 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
• For the week ending November 8, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 27% from pre-pandemic levels in January and February.
• Mortgage purchase applications decreased 3% week over week (seasonally-adjusted) and were up 16% from a year earlier (unadjusted) during the week ending November 6. For the week ending November 12, 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.84%. Rates have been below 3% since late July.

“A lot of people spent last week glued to their screens and put off home tours or listing their homes until we got some certainty around the election results,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Now that most of the elections have been called, people are resuming their plans to move. Some homebuyers and sellers have told us that a change in leadership and positive news about a vaccine have motivated them to come off of the sidelines. Still, prices will continue to surge as long as there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers. While low mortgage interest rates motivate homebuyers to buy, homeowners can take advantage of low rates by refinancing and staying put.”