Takeaway: Mortgage rates will largely stay the same for now as the Fed opts against hiking and says little about future plans.
There was a historically high level of uncertainty going into this meeting, but ultimately, the Fed decided against hiking today because financial markets did their work for them.
- The actions coming out of Fed meetings are usually foregone conclusions based on economic data and commentary from Fed officials in the weeks leading up to the meeting. Chairman Warsh has made it his mission to shroud the meetings in mystery. As such, markets placed a roughly one third probability on a 25 bps hike coming out of today’s meeting, the highest level of uncertainty in decades.
- The committee ultimately opted to hold though three members dissented in favor of a hike.
- In explaining today’s decision despite his repeated assurance that the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down, Chair Warsh pointed to rates in the time between the last meeting and today. In other words, because financial markets had priced in higher rates anticipating some possibility of a hike, he views that as enough to restrain economic activity and help bring inflation down.
Markets had previously been of the view that if the Fed didn’t hike today, they would in the September meeting, but now they are less sure. Ultimately, despite Chair Warsh’s protests against data dependence, the September decision is likely going to be dependent on the inflation and jobs data between now and then.
- Markets have repriced the odds of a hike at the mid-September meeting down from nearly 100% closer to 50/50.
- Warsh is clearly determined not to tip his hand for September, but the other 11 voting members of the FOMC will likely offer some commentary. Regardless, if the inflation and jobs data over the next six weeks clearly point in favor of hiking or holding, it would be difficult for the Fed to truly offer a surprising outcome.
