A record 29% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in the third quarter.
Santa Barbara has grown the most in popularity with people moving in from out of town over the last year, a time period that includes the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and a major shift toward remote work. The Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA metro area is followed by Louisville, KY, Buffalo, NY and several other affordable metros in the South and Northeast.
Net inflow—the number of people looking to move in minus the number of people looking to leave—to Santa Barbara increased by 124% over the last year. In Louisville, net inflow increased by 113% and in Buffalo it increased by 107%. To determine the places that have grown the most in popularity for migrants, we calculated the increases by analyzing the percent changes in net inflow in the third quarter of 2020 versus the third quarter of 2019, relative to the net inflow in the third quarter of 2020. Significantly more Redfin.com users looked to move into all three places than leave in the third quarter of 2020, while more Redfin.com users looked to leave than move in during the third quarter of 2019.
“Remote work has opened up a whole new world of possibilities when it comes to buying a home,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Many residents of expensive areas like New York or Los Angeles couldn’t manage to afford rent and save for a home at the same time. So it’s no wonder that these folks are looking to buy homes in much more affordable places like Louisville and Little Rock.”
The increasing popularity of Louisville, Buffalo and most of the other destinations on the top 10 list like El Paso and Tulsa is likely due in part to their affordability. But Santa Barbara is an expensive outlier. The typical home in the metro sold for $855,000 in September, well above the $730,000 median in Los Angeles, located about 90 miles south of Santa Barbara and the number one origin for people moving there.
“Homebuyers are moving into Santa Barbara and its surrounding beach towns from Los Angeles and San Francisco,” said local Redfin agent John Burdick. “Santa Barbara has become even more popular since the beginning of the pandemic as remote workers leave dense cities for picturesque places with more open spaces and beaches. Another advantage is that it’s not too far from Los Angeles, so remote workers have the option of commuting one or two days a week when offices open.”
The average maximum price for Redfin.com users searching in all the destinations on this list is higher for people searching from out of town than for locals. In the city of Santa Barbara, the average price for migrants was roughly $1.9 million, versus about $1.4 million for locals. The average out-of-towner maximum search price was roughly $415,000 in the city of Louisville versus $385,000 for locals, and in the city of Buffalo the average out-of-towner maximum price was $367,000 versus $332,000 for locals.
“Out-of-towners tend to have a different frame of reference for how much a home should cost,” Fairweather said. “That means people moving in from a pricey place like New York or Los Angeles consider buying more expensive homes than locals. Out-of-towners who work remotely may also have higher house-hunting budgets.”
Redfin.com users are looking to move to leave Los Angeles and New York for affordable inland metros
Excluding Santa Barbara, all the metros that have grown the most in popularity with out-of-towners are relatively affordable, with median home prices below the national median of $334,000. The typical home in Louisville sold for $229,000 in September, and in Buffalo it was $190,000. Another thing they have in common are their location: Six of the top 10 are located in the South, and two are in the state of New York.
Los Angeles and New York are the number one places Redfin.com users are leaving as they move to the areas growing most in popularity. Los Angeles is not only the number one origin for people looking at homes in the Santa Barbara metro, but it’s also the top origin for people looking in El Paso, Little Rock and Tulsa. New York City metro is the top origin for people looking in Buffalo and Syracuse, plus Louisville and Greenville, SC. Statewide, both California and New York have seen significant upticks in the number of people looking to leave over the last year, more than any other state.
Louisville Redfin agent Danielle Field said the area has experienced an uptick in people moving in from all around the country, including California, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Nashville, Phoenix, Austin, Seattle, and Florida.
In El Paso, fifth on the list of places that have grown more popular with the pandemic, the typical home sold for $183,000 in September. Local Redfin real estate agent Marisa Frias said the market has never been more competitive, and some local homebuyers are facing bidding wars.
“El Paso is always a transient town because we have such a large military presence, but I’ve seen a big increase in buyers coming in from places like California, Washington State, Boston and Washington, D.C. this year,” Frias said. “When the pandemic hit, people from out of town started exploring and inquiring about El Paso because they’re looking for a relaxed, tranquil lifestyle in a warm climate, and it doesn’t hurt that the area is so affordable compared to other parts of the country.”
Metro areas with biggest increases in net inflow, Q3 2019 – Q3 2020
| Metro area | Net flow (people looking to move in versus people looking to leave): Q3 2019 | Net flow (people looking to move in versus people looking to leave): Q3 2020 | Percent change in net flow* | Portion of searches from users outside the metro: Q3 2020 | Most popular origin | Median home price (September 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara, CA | -93 | 382 | 124% | 70.8% | Los Angeles, CA | $855,000 |
| Louisville, KY | -33 | 249 | 113% | 42.1% | New York, NY | $229,000 |
| Buffalo, NY | -37 | 555 | 107% | 34.4% | New York, NY | $190,000 |
| Burlington, VT | -6 | 185 | 103% | 59.2% | Boston, MA | $330,000 |
| El Paso, TX | -1 | 180 | 101% | 49.9% | Los Angeles | $183,000 |
| Little Rock, AR | 23 | 131 | 82% | 30.1% | Los Angeles, CA | $181,000 |
| Tulsa, OK | 41 | 209 | 80% | 35.3% | Los Angeles, CA | $210,000 |
| Greenville, SC | 185 | 899 | 79% | 45.8% | New York, NY | $236,000 |
| Knoxville, TN | 147 | 590 | 75% | 58.4% | Chicago, IL | $246,000 |
| Syracuse, NY | 43 | 165 | 74% | 46.0% | New York, NY | $169,000 |
*Percent change = (Value in Q3 2020 – Value in Q3 2019) / (Value in Q3 2020)
A Record Share of Redfin.com Users Are Relocating to a Different Metro Area, With Sacramento, Austin and Las Vegas as the Most Popular Destinations
On a broader level, a record 29.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro area in the third quarter, the highest share since we started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017. That’s up from 26.4% in the third quarter of 2019 and 27.4% in the second quarter of this year. The uptick is partly due to the pandemic and the newfound work-from-home culture.
Last month, we published a preliminary look at third-quarter migration patterns, which showed that 28.7% of home searchers were looking to move to another metro in July and August. This report includes full third-quarter numbers.
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas that make up roughly 80% of the U.S. population in the third quarter of 2020, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must make up at least 80% of the user’s searches.
Sacramento was the most popular destination for homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area, with the biggest net inflow of Redfin.com users in the third quarter.
It’s followed by Austin, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta, all relatively affordable areas that are perennially popular for people moving to different metros.
Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow† | Net Inflow LY | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro: Q3 2020 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro: Q3 2019 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacramento, CA | 11,837 | 7,025 | 50.1% | 43.5% | San Francisco, CA | Reno, NV |
| 2 | Austin, TX | 8,599 | 4,782 | 38.4% | 32.0% | San Francisco, CA | San Francisco, CA |
| 3 | Las Vegas, NV | 8,465 | 5,947 | 49.0% | 44.8% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Phoenix, AZ | 8,339 | 6,147 | 34.3% | 31.6% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 5 | Atlanta, GA | 7,236 | 5,884 | 26.0% | 26.5% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 6 | Dallas, TX | 6,620 | 3,456 | 29.5% | 23.5% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Nashville, TN | 4,990 | 2,188 | 37.8% | 28.8% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 8 | Tampa, FL | 4,896 | 3,184 | 55.3% | 52.6% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
| 9 | Charlotte, NC | 4,071 | 2,880 | 39.6% | 40.1% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | Miami, FL | 3,889 | 2,357 | 25.9% | 24.4% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2020
†Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
People Are Looking to Leave New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles
More Redfin.com users looked to leave New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Chicago than any other metro. Expensive urban cities typically top the list of places people are looking to leave.
In San Francisco, nearly 25% of local Redfin.com users searched for homes outside their home metro in the third quarter, up from roughly 21% during the same time period last year. The jump is likely due in part to the rise of remote work, particularly for tech employees, that began in the spring when the pandemic hit.
Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow† | Net Outflow LY | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere: Q3 2020 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere: Q3 2019 | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York, NY | 48,175 | 35,246.0 | 35.8% | 39.4% | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | 43,592 | 27,152.0 | 24.8% | 20.7% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | 23,727 | 17,235.0 | 17.3% | 16.1% | San Diego, CA | Las Vegas, NV |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 14,180 | 8,573.0 | 13.6% | 11.5% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Chicago, IL | 6,257 | 4,012.0 | 12.0% | 10.2% | South Bend, IN | South Bend, IN |
| 6 | Denver, CO | 5,825 | 3,232.0 | 26.9% | 23.0% | Seattle, WA | Seattle, WA |
| 7 | Seattle, WA | 4,190 | 1,242.0 | 13.9% | 11.2% | Bellingham, WA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 8 | Milwaukee, WI | 2,595 | 1,234.0 | 37.7% | 39.3% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Indianapolis, IN | 1,630 | 331.0 | 35.8% | 28.2% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 10 | Rockford, IL | 1,044 | 407.0 | 86.4% | 80.7% | Chicago, IL | Madison, WI |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2020
†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
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