Overall the candidates are tied for who people expect to be better for the housing market overall.
Only 40% of U.S. residents think that Donald Trump will be better for the housing market than Joe Biden, a slight lead over the 37% who picked Biden, but the two were essentially tied since the small difference between the two candidates was not statistically significant. This is according to an early October Redfin survey of over 3,000 U.S. adults.
When you break down the responses by other factors, some notable differences become clear: More homeowners expect Trump (44%) to be better for the housing market than Biden (35%), while the opposite is true for renters, with 45% picking Biden and only 28% picking Trump.
“The current housing shortage and affordability crisis has been decades in the making,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Neither Republican or Democratic presidents have solved the problem of housing costs rising faster than incomes, so it’s not surprising that so many people believe neither candidate will help the housing market. But it should be encouraging that both candidates have brought up housing during their campaigns in recognition that housing policy is of national importance.”
During the 2016 election in May we ran a similar survey in which we asked people whether Trump, Clinton, Sanders or someone else would help the housing market the most. Respondents then were similarly unimpressed with the candidates’ prospects at improving the housing market, with more choosing “other” than any of the candidates, with Trump coming in last, earning 21% of responses.
Trump has a four-point lead as the candidate that voters expect will be better for homeowners, besting Biden 42% to 38% (this four-point difference was statistically significant).
Trump’s lead widens among homeowners, 46% of whom expect Trump to be better for themselves, compared to 36% who expect Biden to be better. Among renters the results flip, with far more renters (45%) expecting Biden to be better for homeowners than Trump (31%).
On the flip side, Biden has a seven-point edge as the candidate people expect to be better specifically for renters, leading 42% to 35%.
Biden holds an even larger lead among renters, with nearly half (49%) saying that Biden will be better for renters, compared to just a quarter who expect Trump to be better for renters. Homeowners are close to evenly split between who they think will be better for renters.
“Trump has promised to preserve suburban home values, and Biden has promised to do away with exclusionary housing policies that limit housing available for low-income renters,” explained Fairweather. “Those campaign promises explain in part why people believe Trump would be better for homeowners, but Biden would be better for renters.”
Of course, most voters simply expect that the candidate they plan to vote for will be better for the housing market, for renters, and for homeowners.