For Every Condo Buyer in the U.S., There Are More Than Two Sellers. That Gives Condo Buyers Strong Negotiating Power.

• There were 123% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide in September, the widest gap since 2013, giving buyers extraordinary negotiating power.
• The number of condo buyers fell to its lowest level in 13 years, while the number of sellers ticked up. 
• San Antonio had the country’s widest seller surplus, with more than five times as many condo sellers as buyers. Houston ranked second, followed by Miami at 274%.
• Only three metros had more condo buyers than sellers, led by Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ and Milwaukee, WI.

Condo buyers today have more negotiating power than they’ve had in at least 13 years. There were an estimated 123% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide in September, the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. The gap widened from 95.5% a year earlier.

Redfin estimates the number of buyers using proprietary data on the typical time between a buyer’s first home tour and the closing of a purchase, along with MLS data on active listings and pending sales. The estimated number of sellers is based on active listings in the MLS. The figures in this report are national estimates. See the full methodology and explore the interactive dashboard. 

Redfin defines a buyer’s market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers, and a seller’s market as one with more than 10% more buyers than sellers. A market is considered balanced when the difference between sellers and buyers is within 10%. Other housing-market statistics, including median sale price, are based on Redfin’s analysis of MLS data.

A buyer’s market doesn’t necessarily mean condos are affordable for buyers.

The Number of Condo Buyers Fell to a Record Low

The condo market has undergone a dramatic reversal since the pandemic-era homebuying boom. In September 2021, there were 25.1% fewer sellers than buyers.

Five years later, the number of buyers fell 54%, while the number of sellers rose 36%. The shift has left sellers competing for a much smaller pool of potential buyers.

The number of condo buyers fell to an estimated 88,460 in September, down 2.5 % from August and the lowest level in at least 13 years. Meanwhile, condo sellers totaled 197,248, up 0.9 % from the prior month.

Several factors are weighing more heavily on the condo market than on the single-family home market. Rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments are making condos increasingly expensive to own, particularly in Florida and Texas, where hurricane risks and other natural disasters have contributed to higher insurance costs. That’s a problem for first-time buyers, who often turn to condos as a more affordable entry point into the housing market but lack equity from a previous home sale. 

While the condo market is challenging for buyers, those who can afford housing costs will have more power in negotiations.

“For renters who have saved for a down payment and are ready to build equity, these buyer-friendly conditions are an opportunity,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “Buyers have more options and a better chance of finding a place they like. Although condo prices and HOA fees remain relatively high, buyers have more room to negotiate price cuts, and condos are still generally more affordable than single-family homes.”

The single-family market saw a similar trend in September, with the number of buyers dropping to a record low since 2013. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 53.7%–a wide gap, but less than half as wide as what we’re seeing in the condo market. 

The huge surplus of condo sellers over buyers is contributing to the record-breaking buyer’s market in the overall housing market, which encompasses condos, townhouses and single-family homes

Falling Condo Prices Offer Buyers Opportunities

The national median condo sale price fell 0.8% to about $339,000 in September, the first year-over-year decline in five months.

House hunters should keep in mind that the costs of buying and owning a condo extend beyond its purchase price, and those ongoing expenses can put additional pressure on buyers’ budgets. Rising homeowners association (HOA) fees and insurance premiums can push up the total monthly cost of ownership. Buyers should also consider the possibility of special assessments to cover major repairs or improvements to a building’s common areas.

But for buyers who can afford the upfront costs of a condo and plan to stay put for several years, today’s buyer’s  market may offer an opportunity.

“Find a motivated seller and there are a lot of them,” said Cecilia Cordova, a Redfin Premier agent in Miami, who lives in a condominium herself. Researching the buildings you’d like to live in is the key to finding a financially healthy community and avoiding surprise assessment bills later, she said. 

Condo buyers have more options than they did years ago. “We have enough inventory for the next three to four years,” said Cordova. 

For prospective sellers? Cordova suggests considering renting their condo out for the time being. “If you really need to sell, the strategy is to list it lower than anybody else in the same building. It’s not time for you to try to experiment with a higher price,” she said.

Today’s home prices and mortgage rates have made it harder for first-time homebuyers to enter the market, reducing demand for condos, which have traditionally served as an entry point to homeownership. The weekly average mortgage rate is 7.18% as of November 5, and home prices remain near historic highs. 

Sellers are increasingly dropping their asking prices to attract buyers, Redfin data shows. About 37% of condos that sold in September had a price reduction, compared with 16% during the pandemic-era housing boom five years earlier. 

The typical condo that sold in September spent 63 days on the market before going under contract, up from 35 days five years earlier. 

Texas Has the Country’s Most Buyer-Friendly Condo Markets

Condo buyers in Texas had more negotiating powers than anywhere else in the country in September. San Antonio had the widest seller-buyer gap among the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas, with an estimated 459% more sellers than buyers. Houston followed with 322% more sellers than buyers, then came Austin, with 258% more.

Miami also had one of the nation’s widest gaps, with an estimated 274% more condo sellers than buyers in September, ranking third.

“San Antonio condos may have an attractive purchase price, but buyers are looking at the total monthly payment. Because we have so many affordable single-family homes available, many buyers choose a house when the payments are close,” said Derrell Skillman, a Redfin Premier agent in San Antonio, TX.

Skillman added San Antonio has a large military community, and its housing market tends to follow the military’s permanent change-of-station (PCS) season. 

“We usually see more military-related activity during the spring and summer when families are transferring in and out of the area. Once that period slows down, the drop in demand can be more noticeable, especially in a smaller segment like condos,” he said. “HOA costs, financing restrictions, builder incentives, softer investor demand and the slowdown after the military PCS season are all contributing to the buyer’s market for condos,” said Skillman.

Meanwhile, new construction is adding to the softness in Sun Belt markets. The Sun Belt is home to nine of the 10 metros where condo sellers outnumber buyers most. 

Nassau County Is the Only Seller’s Market for Condos 

Nassau County, NY, was the only metro area among the 50 analyzed that was a seller’s market for condos in September. There were 32% fewer sellers than buyers, with an estimated 1,545 buyers compared with 1,052 sellers.

“Condo buyers are mostly people who want maintenance-free living,” said William Ortiz, a Redfin Premier agent in Long Island, NY. “They want to have an easier lifestyle as opposed to all the maintenance and upkeep that comes with a house. Common charges are expensive, but they’re willing to pay for that convenience.”

According to Sandra Glaser, a Redfin senior agent in Long Island, condo demand is coming from three main groups: first-time buyers priced out of single-family homes, particularly those moving from the city to the suburbs; downsizers seeking less upkeep; and investors looking for rental income from properties that require minimal maintenance.

Five other metros — Chicago, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, Newark and San Francisco — had balanced condo markets, where the difference between buyers and sellers was within 10%.

San Francisco’s condo market, for example, is heating up, with the median sale price jumping 20% year over year to nearly $1.2 million in September. Khan, the Redfin senior economist, ties the area’s renewed housing demand to the AI boom, which is attracting highly paid workers and fueling homebuying.