- Phoenix, Dallas and Orlando were the most popular migration destinations of 2021.
- But with home prices up roughly 30% in certain Sun Belt hotspots, some locals are getting priced out and some relocators may have second thoughts.
- Nationwide, 31% of Redfin.com users looked to relocate last year, up from 26% before the pandemic.
Phoenix was the most popular U.S. migration destination of 2021, followed by Dallas and Orlando. Redfin estimates the Phoenix metro gained roughly 85,000 residents from other metro areas in 2021, far more than any other metro, while Dallas gained about 56,000 and Orlando gained about 53,000. Nine of the 10 most popular migration destinations of 2021 are in the Sun Belt, and half had a median home-sale price under the national median of roughly $383,000 in December.
But while hundreds of thousands of Americans flocked to Sun Belt cities last year in search of affordability, housing costs are rapidly rising. That’s largely because so many people—often remote workers taking advantage of low mortgage rates—are moving in from other areas. Nationwide, 31% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro in 2021, up from 25.6% in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic.
Home-price growth was well above the national growth rate (15% year over year) for all 10 of the most popular destinations in December. Similarly, the average growth in rental payments for new leases far outpaced national growth (14%) in seven of the 10 most popular metros.
In Phoenix, for example, the typical home sold for $435,000 in December, 28% more than a year earlier, and the average monthly rental payment increased 26% year over year to $2,100. Prices of consumer goods and services are also increasing faster in popular migration destinations, with prices in Phoenix up 8.4% year over year in the fourth quarter, the second-highest inflation rate in the U.S.
Rapidly rising housing costs could slow the flow of Americans relocating to Phoenix and other Sun Belt cities. As the affordability gap narrows, some people may choose to stay in expensive coastal cities and others may opt for northern cities where homes are less expensive.
Still, home prices in Phoenix remain roughly half that of many metros in coastal California—the typical Los Angeles home sold for $835,000 in December, for instance—so relocating to a state like Arizona, Texas or Florida remains financially advantageous for a lot of homebuyers and they will continue to attract relocators.
| U.S. metro areas that gained the most residents in 2021
Data in the net inflow column is for the full year 2021 All housing market stats are from December 2021 |
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| Metro area | Net inflow | Median home price | Median home price, YoY | Average monthly rent payment, new leases | Average monthly rent payment, new leases, YoY | Number of homes for sale, YoY | |
| 1 | Phoenix, AZ | 85,183 | $435,200 | 28% | $2,107 | 26% | -18.6% |
| 2 | Dallas, TX | 56,449 | $385,000 | 20.3% | $2,081 | 28.5% | -27.6% |
| 3 | Orlando, FL | 52,621 | $356,000 | 22.8% | $2,050 | 28.8% | -29% |
| 4 | Atlanta, GA | 37,970 | $350,000 | 22.8% | $2,016 | 12.1% | -27.4% |
| 5 | Tampa, FL | 37,440 | $338,000 | 24.3% | $2,076 | 28.1% | -8% |
| 6 | Austin, TX | 32,184 | $482,100 | 30.3% | $2,290 | 39.9% | -6.5% |
| 7 | Las Vegas, NV | 31,701 | $399,400 | 24.8% | $1,820 | 25.2% | -27.7% |
| 8 | Charlotte, NC | 28,546 | $357,000 | 20.4% | $1,730 | 11.5% | -31.4% |
| 9 | Denver, CO | 25,665 | $540,000 | 19.5% | $2,661 | 19% | -26.8% |
| 10 | San Antonio, TX | 23,909 | $308,600 | 18.7% | $1,386 | 11.5% | -17.8% |
This report ranks migration destinations by net inflow, a measure of how many more people moved into a metro area than out. The estimates of net inflows are based on search data from Redfin.com and the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Moving across the country is now easier for many Americans, thanks to remote work. That cultural shift is here to stay,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “What’s changing is the affordability of the most popular destinations. Some locals, particularly renters who aren’t able to take advantage of rising home values, are getting priced out of places like Phoenix and Austin as the cost of housing and other goods and services go up. New construction tends to be robust in sprawling Sun Belt cities, and local governments ought to continue to prioritize building new homes to keep up with ongoing demand.”
Out-of-towners with big budgets are helping fuel rapid price growth in the most popular destinations. In eight of the 10 most popular destinations (the two Florida metros are the exception), the average out-of-towner’s budget was at least 15% higher than the average local’s budget in the first quarter of 2021.
For instance, the average housing budget for migrants moving to Austin was $855,000, 32% higher than the average budget for local buyers. Austin, the sixth most popular destination, had the fastest price growth (30.3% YoY) and the fastest-rising rental payments (40%) of any metro in the U.S. in December.
“Sellers are listing their homes at higher prices than ever before, partly because of huge demand in the last year from out-of-towners,” said Austin Redfin agent Barb Cooper. “ I recently had a couple looking for a 2,000-square-foot home anywhere in the Austin area for under $300,000. I had to tell them it doesn’t exist.”
Methodology
The national numbers in this report are based on a sample of more than 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas in 2021, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must make up at least 80% of the user’s searches.
To analyze the metro-level 2021 domestic migration trends, Redfin used a combination of Redfin.com search data and U.S. Census Bureau data to determine the most popular destinations of the year and the places people were most commonly looking to leave, and to estimate net inflows and outflows for the metros mentioned in this report.
A note on Miami
Although Miami ranked as one of the most popular U.S. migration destinations in many of our 2021 monthly migration reports, it’s not listed here because this analysis uses a different methodology. The domestic migration statistics in this report are partly based on U.S. Census data, which includes renter households in addition to homebuyers and excludes international immigrants. Our monthly migration reports are based on Redfin.com user search data, which means they exclude renters and include second-home buyers, who may not actually be relocating.
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