Homebuyers are looking to leave Austin as housing costs stay high, and some recent transplants move back to their hometowns. On the other side of the coin, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Orlando are the most popular destinations for homebuyers despite increasing climate risk.
More homebuyers looked to leave Austin, TX than move in during the third quarter, the first time on record there hasn’t been a net inflow into the Texas capital.
The number of Austin-based Redfin.com users looking for homes outside the metro area has more than doubled over the last year.
The data in this report is based on the searches of about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from July 2023 to September 2023. Redfin’s records go back through 2017. Scroll down for the full methodology.
This marks a stark reversal for Austin, which was a magnet for out-of-town homebuyers looking for a more affordable place to live even before the pandemic. Once the pandemic began, ushering in an era of remote work and record-low mortgage rates, Austin’s popularity boomed: It was the number-one U.S. migration destination in the beginning of 2021.
Austin has fallen out of favor with relocating homebuyers for several reasons:
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- Rising home prices. By mid-2022, when Austin home prices peaked, prices were up more than 75% from before the pandemic. Austin prices have since declined from that peak, but homes are still much more expensive than before the pandemic. The gap between Austin’s home prices and those of where homebuyers commonly move from, like Los Angeles and San Francisco, is smaller than it used to be.
- Monthly mortgage payments have doubled since before the pandemic. Soaring mortgage rates exacerbated Austin’s affordability problems, making monthly housing payments even more expensive than they already were with increasing prices. Today’s typical monthly payment for Austin’s median-priced home ($455,000) at this week’s average mortgage rate (7.63%) is $3,890, nearly double 2019’s typical payment of $2,136 (median sale price of $320,000; average mortgage rate of 3.94%).
- Some homebuyers who moved to Austin are leaving. Austin Redfin agents report that some formerly remote workers moved back to their home city after being called back to the office, and a few others are moving back after trying Austin and realizing it’s not a longterm fit. Some others are likely leaving Austin to be closer to major job hubs as the labor market starts slowing.
Slowing migration is good news for Austin locals looking to buy. Austin’s median home price is down about 5% year over year, the biggest decline in the U.S., and it’s down nearly 20% from its pandemic peak. “I’m telling buyers that this is the first time in years they can get a deal on a house, even with high mortgage rates,” said Austin Redfin Premier agent Carmen Gioia. “It’s probably a better time to buy now than waiting for mortgage rates to drop, because once that happens, competition will escalate and prices will shoot up. Right now, buyers are able to take their sweet time, negotiate with sellers, and buy a home without getting into a wild bidding war.”
Homebuyers leaving Austin are most commonly moving to other places in Texas. San Antonio and Corpus Christi are two of the three most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving away from Austin; the other is Denver.
Share of U.S. homebuyers moving to a different part of the country is near record high
Nationwide, the share of homebuyers relocating to a different metro area is still near record highs. Roughly one-quarter (25.9%) of homebuyers looked to move to a different part of the country in the third quarter. That’s essentially flat from the record high of 26% hit in August, and up from 24% a year ago and about 19% before the pandemic began.
There are 9% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move away from their home metro than a year ago–the biggest annual drop on record. But out-of-town home searches are holding up better than in-town searches: There are 17% fewer Redfin.com users searching within their home metro than a year ago.
The share of homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area remains quite high even as the overall housing market cools because many Americans are chasing affordability. Nine of the 10 most popular migration destinations have lower home prices than the most common origin of buyers moving in.
Homebuyers are moving into relatively affordable but climate-risky places
Sacramento, CA, Las Vegas and Orlando, FL were the most popular destinations for relocating homebuyers in the third quarter. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.
Half of the 10 most popular destinations are in Florida, and 8 of the 10 are on the East Coast–although the two most popular are in the western part of the U.S. Nearly all of the places homebuyers are moving to are more affordable than the places people are coming from, which helps explain why they’re so popular even though most face increasing climate risks. Sacramento, for instance, faces severe heat risk, and Orlando faces extreme wind/hurricane risk.
| Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow
Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave |
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| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow, Q3 2023 | Net Inflow, Q3 2022 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin
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| 1 | Sacramento, CA | 4,800 | 8,700 | San Francisco, CA | Chicago, IL |
| 2 | Las Vegas, NV | 4,500 | 7,000 | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 3 | Orlando, FL | 4,000 | 3,000 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 4 | Myrtle Beach, SC | 3,800 | 3,200 | Washington, D.C. | Washington, D.C. |
| 5 | North Port-Sarasota, FL | 3,700 | 5,200 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 6 | Portland, ME | 3,500 | 3,300 | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
| 7 | Tampa, FL | 3,400 | 6,700 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 8 | Cape Coral, FL | 3,300 | 5,200 | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Miami, FL | 3,200 | 8,000 | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | Salisbury, MD | 3,100 | 2,500 | Washington, D.C. | Washington, D.C. |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in July 2023-Sept. 2023 | |||||
Homebuyers are leaving San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles for more affordable places
Homebuyers are leaving San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles more than any other metro in the country. That’s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in.
Expensive coastal job centers typically top the list of metros homebuyers are leaving, mainly because homebuyers are seeking more affordable places to live. Most of the places homebuyers are most commonly leaving have more expensive homes than the places they’re moving to. The median sale price in San Francisco, for instance, is more than double that of Sacramento, the most common destination for homebuyers leaving the Bay Area.
| Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow
Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in |
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| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow, Q3 2023 | Net Outflow, Q3 2022 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination
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| 1 | San Francisco, CA | 25,800 | 37,700 | 24% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 2 | New York, NY | 25,300 | 23,500 | 30% | Miami, FL | Miami, FL |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | 20,200 | 33,500 | 19% | Las Vegas, NV | Las Vegas, NV |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 13,900 | 18,800 | 19% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Chicago, IL | 4,800 | 5,600 | 16% | Milwaukee, WI | Milwaukee, WI |
| 6 | Boston, MA | 4,300 | 9,300 | 21% | Portland, ME | Portland, ME |
| 7 | Hartford, CT | 3,300 | 900 | 79% | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
| 8 | Denver, CO | 2,200 | 3,700 | 35% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Detroit, MI | 2,000 | 4,500 | 26% | Grand Rapids, MI | Cape Coral, FL |
| 10 | San Diego, CA | 1,800 | inflow of 6,900 | 29% | Las Vegas, NV | Las Vegas, NV |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in July 2023-Sept. 2023 | ||||||
Below is a map of the most common origins of Redfin.com users who are moving to the Sacramento metro. To view similar maps for the metros in this report and other metros, please visit the area’s Redfin housing market page and scroll down to the “migration” section.
Methodology
Our migration analysis is based on about two million Redfin.com users who viewed for-sale homes online across more than 100 metro areas from July 2023 to Sept. 2023. To measure the share of homebuyers looking to relocate from one metro to another, we calculate the portion of overall home searchers that are migrants.
A Redfin.com user counts as a migrant if they viewed at least 10 for-sale homes in the relevant three-month period and at least one of those homes was outside their home metro area. For instance, if a Redfin.com user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period and all of them are in Phoenix, that user counts as a full migrant to Phoenix. If a user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period and five are in Phoenix but five are in San Diego, that user counts as half of a migrant to Phoenix and half of a migrant to San Diego. If a user based in Seattle views 10 homes in a three-month period, nine in Seattle and one in Phoenix, that user counts as one-tenth of a migrant to Phoenix.
The analysis includes combined statistical areas with at least 500 Redfin.com users based in that region and at least 500 users searching for homes in that region. For instance, a user based in Seattle searching for a home in Phoenix counts toward the first condition, a user based in Phoenix searching for a home in Seattle counts toward the second condition, and a user based in Seattle searching for a home in Seattle counts toward both. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.
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