The latest inflation report came in hotter than expected. For homebuyers and sellers, that means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated for now–but we still expect them to decline by the end of 2024.
Inflation came in higher than expected in January, meaning mortgage rates should settle in the low 7s today. The March Fed rate cut is all but officially dead now.
Summary of January’s CPI report: Overall inflation came in at 0.3% MoM vs. 0.2% expected, and 3.1% YoY vs 2.9% expected. Core CPI (the key measure to focus on because it strips out volatile food and energy prices) came in at 0.4% MoM vs. 0.3% expected, and 3.9% YoY vs 3.7% expected.
Why inflation came in higher than expected: Shelter (especially owners’ equivalent rent) was the main component that contributed to the upside surprise, since it came in at 0.6% MoM and is also the largest category in the CPI basket. We continue to expect that CPI shelter will come down even though it’s taking longer than expected because market rents have long been flat. Today’s owners’ equivalent rent number looked suspiciously high, given that rent of primary residences came in at 0.4% MoM. Since this is a measure that is imputed by the BLS based on rental properties deemed equivalent to owner occupied homes, it could have fallen victim to statistical noise this month. Medical care services also jumped in January because prices reset at the beginning of the year. The CPI report also includes two methodological updates: updated seasonal adjustment factors and updated weights. Both of these mechanically pushed up inflation estimates for January. The effect of the updated seasonal factors should be small, but the updated weights put a larger weight on shelter.
What this means for the Fed and mortgage rates: The Fed had already largely taken the March rate hike off the table. After this data, markets are now forecasting a less than 5% chance of a rate cut in March; a rate cut later in the spring is still on the table. While there is one more CPI report before the Fed’s March 20 meeting, it’s unlikely that would set us on a different path. However, before we get too pessimistic, it is also important to remember that the Fed focuses on core PCE rather than core CPI. One key difference between PCE and CPI is that PCE has a much lower weight on shelter. The difference between PCE and CPI has grown over the last year largely because shelter inflation in CPI has remained stubbornly high. Therefore, PCE could continue to decline toward the Fed’s target while CPI remains more elevated. 10-treasury yields jumped about 10 bps on the news. That’s likely to hold barring new information later in the day. Mortgage rates are likely to settle in the low 7’s today. We flirted with 7 last week, but we should breach that again today.
What this means for homebuyers and sellers: Overall, this still falls in the category of speed bumps on a broader trajectory toward the Fed’s inflation goals and intention to cut rates this year. This is just the January data, and January is always a funky month for economic data because of methodological updates and start of year effects. We should still be looking at lower mortgage rates this year, as the data will soon pave the path for the Fed to lower rates.
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