Takeaway: Rates should see little change today following an as-expected inflation report, but a Fed hike in September seems increasingly unlikely.
Core inflation came in almost spot on with expectations, thwarting fears that inflation would continue to spike in the absence of an agreement with Iran.
- Core inflation in July came in at 0.22% month over month, following a surprisingly weak 0.0% reading last month. Relative to a year ago, core prices have increased 2.5%.
- There was a large spike of 3.5% month-over-month growth in the computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants, which was largely expected given price increases announced by Apple earlier in the summer. The all-important and closely watched shelter category remained low at 0.1% month-over-month.
- Gas prices fell in July, but are expected to reverse in August. Food price inflation is showing signs of moderation, which should be helpful for consumer sentiment.
- Based on today’s number, core PCE, the inflation metric the Fed prefers, should come in close to 0.2% month-over-month.
The Fed was at 50% odds for a hike in September coming into this data, but if next month’s data looks similar, there’s now less reason for the committee to actually hike.
- We’ve now had two months of weaker than expected jobs reports and one weak inflation report followed by a largely benign one. The data is painting a picture of a fragile, but balanced economy.
- With that backdrop, even as the Iran conflict drags on and AI keeps the economy resilient, it’s hard to imagine that the majority of the committee feels like the Fed has to further restrict the economy.
- We’re not out of the woods though. The more hawkish members are likely to advocate for hike, pointing to the level of annual inflation which has remained above the Fed’s target for 4 years.
