Homebuyer interest in moving to a new metro area remains elevated above pre-pandemic levels, with roughly 30% of Redfin.com users looking to relocate, as remote work becomes the new normal.
Nationwide, 30.3% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in October and November. That’s down from a record-high 31.5% in the first quarter of 2021 but well above pre-pandemic levels.
Homebuyer interest in relocating to a different part of the country accelerated as the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the first half of 2020 and reached its peak at the beginning of this year before declining slightly and leveling out as 2021 draws to a close. Redfin.com users are showing significantly more interest in relocating than before the pandemic, when levels stood at 25% to 26%.
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 111 metro areas in October and November, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user’s searches. Redfin’s migration data goes back to 2017.
“Interest in relocating to a different part of the country will remain elevated as long as homebuyers have the ability to pick up and move, like a lot of people do now,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “For some people, the ability to work remotely has widened their search parameters from a few particular neighborhoods to the entire country. There simply aren’t as many obstacles to moving to an entirely new area as there used to be.”
“At the beginning of the pandemic, remote work gave homebuyers the opportunity to consider a new location,” Fairweather continued. “Now the labor market is incredibly tight, which means even homebuyers with in-person occupations can move somewhere new and be confident they can secure employment in their new town.”
Influx of homebuyers into South Florida continues
Miami was the most popular migration destination of any major U.S. metro for the fourth month in a row.
Next come Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento and Tampa. Two other Florida metros also appear on the top 10, with Cape Coral taking the number seven spot and North Port coming in 10th. The popularity of migration destinations is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.
Relatively affordable metros with warm weather typically top the list of places buyers are looking to move into, but Miami topping the list is a relatively new phenomenon. Places like Miami and Tampa have consistently appeared on the top-10 list since Redfin started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017, but southwestern metros like Phoenix and Austin typically take the number-one spot.
Florida has become a particularly popular destination this year as remote workers and retirees flock to the state in search of beaches, warm weather, low taxes and more affordable housing than big cities on the East Coast or West Coast. Net inflow into Miami has nearly tripled since this time last year and net inflow into Tampa has nearly doubled, with New York as the number-one origin for Redfin.com users moving to both areas.
“More than half of my active clients are either investors or people who are relocating, coming from places like California, Oregon, New York and New Jersey,” said Miami Redfin agent Cristina Llanos. “The relocators tend to be young remote workers who are moving to Miami for the affordability and sunshine. One client said they’re coming to Miami because they hate the snow; another wants to raise their kids in an ethnically diverse city.”
“Many of the investors are buying luxury vacation condos as a winter escape. That group is looking for a long-term investment for retirement or to leave to their kids,” Llanos continued. “Other investors want to make a quick buck with short-term rentals, which is difficult to do in the Miami market. Many buildings don’t allow Airbnb tenants, and a lot of the condos that make desirable rentals are too expensive to make money on.”
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow, October & November 2021† | Net Inflow , October & November 2020 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, October & November 2021 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, October & November 2020 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami, FL | 9,376 | 3,170 | 32.0% | 26.4% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 2 | Phoenix, AZ | 8,683 | 7,664 | 35.4% | 36.2% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 3 | Las Vegas, NV | 6,610 | 7,819 | 42.5% | 52.1% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Sacramento, CA | 6,403 | 7,945 | 40.8% | 49.1% | San Francisco, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 5 | Tampa, FL | 6,011 | 3,950 | 45.8% | 56.4% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
| 6 | Dallas, TX | 5,103 | 5,955 | 25.3% | 31.4% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Cape Coral, FL | 4,366 | 3,154 | 67.1% | 75.1% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 8 | San Antonio, TX | 4,345 | 2,265 | 42.9% | 44.0% | Houston, TX | Los Angeles, CA |
| 9 | Atlanta, GA | 4,164 | 6,459 | 20.0% | 26.7% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | North Port, FL | 4,044 | 2,211 | 65.2% | 77.1% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021
†Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
Homebuyers are leaving big cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York
San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle top the list of places Redfin.com users looked to leave in October and November. That’s according to net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.
Big, expensive coastal cities typically top the list of places Redfin.com users are looking to leave, a trend that has accelerated with the pandemic and remote-work options. Many big-city dwellers with white-collar jobs are able to work remotely from more affordable locations with a lot of recreational opportunities.
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow, October & November 2021 | Net Outflow, October & November 2020 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, October & November 2021 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, October & November 2020 | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco, CA | 41,407 | 33,710 | 22.9% | 24.0% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 2 | Los Angeles, CA | 33,889 | 20,879 | 19.2% | 18.0% | San Diego, CA | Phoenix, AZ |
| 3 | New York, NY | 23,320 | 37,447 | 26.7% | 35.2% | Philadelphia, PA | Philadelphia, PA |
| 4 | Washington, D.C. | 15,805 | 10,282 | 14.7% | 12.9% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Seattle, WA | 13,128 | 2,528 | 16.3% | 14.1% | Phoenix, AZ | Phoenix, AZ |
| 6 | Boston, MA | 7,815 | 312 | 15.9% | 12.2% | Portland, ME | Portland, ME |
| 7 | Chicago, IL | 5,678 | 5,819 | 12.5% | 12.3% | Cape Coral, FL | Cape Coral, FL |
| 8 | Denver, CO | 2,675 | 4,433 | 25.6% | 27.7% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Minneapolis, MN | 1,518 | -977 | 22.2% | 18.2% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 10 | Detroit, MI | 1,313 | 710 | 23.8% | 22.6% | Grand Rapids, MI | Chicago, IL |
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021
†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only
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