- 74% of U.S. metros with more than half of homes facing intense drought saw more people move in than out this year.
- An estimated $17 trillion worth of homes (about 25 million properties) experienced intense drought in August, up 42% from a year earlier.
- There were 13 metros, including Las Vegas, Sacramento and Austin, where 100% of homes experienced intense drought in August. All but two have recently seen more people look to move in than out.
People are increasingly moving into drought-prone America. About three-quarters of U.S. metropolitan areas where more than half of homes experienced intense drought in August have seen more people move in than out in recent months.
In 34 of the 129 metros (26%) Redfin analyzed, more than 50% of homes experienced intense drought in mid-August. Twenty-five of those 34 metros (74%) saw net inflows in the second quarter. A net inflow means more Redfin.com users looked to move in than leave.
Here’s how that compares to a year earlier: Just 23 of the 99 metros (23%) Redfin has 2021 data for had more than 50% of homes experiencing intense drought in mid-August 2021. Of those 23 metros, 16—or 70%—saw net inflows in the second quarter of 2021.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of roughly two million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas in the second quarter, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. We used data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to calculate the share of homes in each metro that experienced severe, extreme or exceptional drought (referred to as “intense” drought in this report) during the second week of August 2022.
An estimated $17 trillion worth of homes (roughly 25 million properties) in the metros Redfin analyzed experienced intense drought in mid-August 2022, up 42% from $12 trillion (14 million properties) a year earlier. The increase was partly fueled by the surge in home prices over the past year, but is also related to where drought-prone properties are located. Los Angeles, San Jose and New York—three of the most expensive housing markets in the country—were among the metros with the largest number of homes facing intense drought in mid-August. Dallas, San Antonio and Sacramento, Sun Belt metros that have seen home values soar due to an influx of new residents, were also in the top 10.
Much of drought-prone America is located in the Sun Belt, which has ballooned in popularity in recent years as people have been priced out of expensive coastal cities. From 2016 through 2020, more people moved into than out of areas facing high risk from not only drought, but heat, fire and flood as well, a separate Redfin analysis found. The 50 U.S. counties with the largest share of homes facing high drought risk saw their populations increase by an average of 3.5% during that period due to positive net migration. This trend intensified during the pandemic as remote work made it more feasible to relocate to relatively affordable areas. Drought, too, has intensified, due to climate change.
“Many people take climate risk into consideration when deciding where to live, but other factors, like affordability, often take precedence given that rent costs are rising and monthly mortgage payments for homebuyers are up nearly 40% from a year ago,” said Redfin Economist Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga. “Drought may also not be scaring people off to the same extent as fires or flooding, which can physically decimate homes. Still, homeowners and buyers should be aware that drought danger could ultimately dent their home’s value if a lack of water forces residents to leave en masse.”
Redfin.com now publishes climate-risk data for nearly every U.S. home, with the exception of rental listings, to help house hunters make more informed decisions. That includes risk scores for drought, fire, heat, flood and storm.
In Las Vegas, Sacramento and San Antonio, Influx of New Residents Coincides With Intense Drought
There were 13 metros where 100% of homes experienced severe, extreme or exceptional drought in mid-August: Las Vegas, Bakersfield, CA, Austin, TX, Killeen, TX, Visalia, CA, San Antonio, Dallas, Reno, NV, Chico, CA, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, CA, Fresno, CA and Salinas, CA. All but two of those metros—Visalia and Salt Lake City—saw more people look to move in than out in the second quarter.
Sacramento had the biggest net inflow among those 14 metros, with 9,640 more Redfin.com users looking to move in than leave in the second quarter. It was followed by Las Vegas, (8,597), San Antonio (5,335), Dallas (4,964) and Bakersfield (2,576).
“Out-of-towners are still flocking to Vegas because they want lower taxes, cheaper groceries and gas, more affordable homes and less traffic. Moving to a lower-tax state is a good way to trim your spending at a time when virtually everything is becoming more expensive,” said local Redfin real estate agent Lori Garlick. “Homebuyers are expressing concerns about drought, especially now that the shrinking of Lake Mead is all over the news, but drought risk isn’t a dealbreaker for most of my clients. I did have one buyer back out of moving to Vegas because they were worried there wouldn’t be any water in a few years, but they ended up moving to Arizona, which is also endangered by drought.”
Nevada last year passed a law calling for the removal of “nonfunctional” grass by the end of 2026 in an effort to conserve water. And starting Sept. 1, Las Vegas homeowners won’t be able to have swimming pools larger than 600 square feet—a rule that could impact high-end homebuyers with ambitions for large pools.
“It will be interesting to see whether new water restrictions will affect migration to Las Vegas,” Garlick said. “Say you’re a green thumb from California who’s used to trees and lawns, and you’re wavering between drought-prone Las Vegas and drought-prone Colorado. The rules limiting vegetation in Vegas might cause you to opt for Colorado.”
An influx of migration is compounding climate dangers in some areas. In Utah, for example, population growth is one factor causing the Great Salt Lake to dry up. If it continues to recede, toxic chemicals in the lake bed could get picked up in wind storms and poison residents. The Salt Lake City metro experienced a net outflow in the second quarter, but surrounding areas, including Wasatch County, have seen their populations increase in recent years.
Metro-Level Drought Impact Summary: August 2022
Unless otherwise noted, data in the table below represents the second week of August 2022. The table is sorted by the “share of homes facing drought” column. Blank spaces indicate insufficient data for corresponding metros. Percentages are rounded up to the nearest tenth of a percent.
| U.S. Metro Area | Share of Homes Facing Drought | Number of Homes Facing Drought | Estimated Value of Homes Facing Drought | Net Inflow/Outflow (Q2 2022) | Median Sale Price (July 2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas, NV | 100.0% | 754,410 | $374,469,991,901 | 8,597 | $430,000 |
| Bakersfield, CA | 100.0% | 234,829 | $87,988,278,709 | 2,576 | $350,000 |
| Austin, TX | 100.0% | 676,803 | $474,369,169,347 | 1,543 | $520,000 |
| Killeen, TX | 100.0% | 135,156 | $39,842,036,174 | 841 | $285,000 |
| Visalia, CA | 100.0% | 115,828 | $41,373,249,458 | -167 | $360,528 |
| San Antonio, TX | 100.0% | 780,238 | $267,610,916,996 | 5,335 | $334,451 |
| Dallas, TX | 100.0% | 2,289,631 | $1,065,575,099,389 | 4,964 | $435,000 |
| Reno, NV | 100.0% | 217,595 | $158,317,847,570 | 806 | $549,950 |
| Chico, CA | 100.0% | 64,193 | $27,996,090,866 | 459 | $437,000 |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 100.0% | 875,833 | $559,735,835,811 | -1,175 | $525,000 |
| Sacramento, CA | 100.0% | 796,425 | $550,254,981,744 | 9,640 | $589,250 |
| Fresno, CA | 100.0% | 315,470 | $135,579,285,089 | 2,092 | $400,000 |
| Salinas, CA | 100.0% | 97,044 | $115,129,440,729 | 1,731 | $893,000 |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 99.9% | 568,516 | $137,707,132,258 | 850 | $254,745 |
| Houston, TX | 99.9% | 2,060,521 | $789,099,323,095 | 4,617 | $345,000 |
| Santa Maria, CA | 99.8% | 101,077 | $151,932,090,692 | 762 | $792,500 |
| Los Angeles, CA | 99.8% | 4,383,279 | $4,674,166,659,145 | -40,632 | $862,250 |
| Springfield, MA | 99.6% | 217,190 | $74,666,072,951 | -1,315 | $170,000 |
| San Jose, CA | 99.5% | 2,469,402 | $3,399,612,703,152 | -48,718 | $1,400,000 |
| San Luis Obispo, CA | 98.2% | 93,489 | $93,627,164,816 | 2,232 | $853,000 |
| Boston, MA | 96.2% | 2,760,918 | $1,803,284,484,520 | -12,493 | $685,000 |
| Hartford, CT | 93.0% | 481,482 | $160,487,209,659 | -27 | $317,250 |
| Tulsa, OK | 92.7% | 366,897 | $80,386,587,237 | 912 | $251,000 |
| Wichita, KS | 90.5% | 202,604 | $834,030 | 21 | $235,000 |
| Portland, ME | 80.2% | 193,279 | $97,337,792,519 | 3,585 | $455,000 |
| Bend, OR | 80.0% | 72,968 | $50,426,376,880 | 2,722 | $674,813 |
| Little Rock, AR | 78.5% | 253,586 | $55,029,516,570 | 289 | $225,000 |
| Medford, OR | 70.7% | 66,245 | $32,314,853,630 | 688 | $450,000 |
| Albuquerque, NM | 70.0% | 183,635 | $1,333,060 | 2,070 | — |
| Champaign, IL | 69.3% | 39,704 | $9,196,846,068 | -229 | $199,450 |
| Honolulu, HI | 64.3% | 229,053 | $183,694,599,475 | 2,127 | — |
| Minneapolis, MN | 61.1% | 827,058 | $342,424,386,954 | -2,795 | $375,000 |
| Corpus Christi, TX | 59.2% | 101,251 | $6,244,354,738 | 667 | — |
| Tucson, AZ | 57.0% | 201,311 | $64,520,221,534 | 1,004 | $360,000 |
| Kahului, HI | 47.6% | 35,375 | $42,867,613,921 | 1,828 | $925,000 |
| New York, NY | 24.8% | 1,429,710 | $987,068,559,669 | -35,165 | $710,000 |
| Fayetteville, AR | 16.4% | 27,461 | $8,245,835,702 | 271 | $340,000 |
| El Paso, TX | 15.2% | 43,495 | $16,569,038 | 683 | $240,000 |
| Des Moines, IA | 14.7% | 40,579 | $7,783,200,648 | -18 | $277,000 |
| Eau Claire, WI | 10.5% | 7,110 | $1,825,927,969 | 28 | $296,800 |
| Omaha, NE | 9.9% | 22,661 | $5,101,002,910 | 16 | $290,000 |
| Denver, CO | 9.2% | 107,352 | $55,768,539,473 | -5,635 | $590,000 |
| Shreveport, LA | 5.3% | 7,533 | $1,192,796,170 | 18 | $223,500 |
| San Diego, CA | 1.5% | 12,526 | $9,068,543,415 | 6,804 | $830,000 |
| McAllen, TX | 0.8% | 1,813 | $204,073,190 | 216 | $230,000 |
| Boise, ID | 0.6% | 1,337 | $435,624,329 | 1,951 | $513,450 |
| Kansas City, MO | 0.6% | 4,773 | $901,794,916 | 134 | $315,000 |
| Prescott Valley, AZ | 0.3% | 331 | $4,525,774 | 1,314 | $530,000 |
| Memphis, TN | 0.3% | 1,523 | $10,128,502 | 749 | $290,000 |
| Baton Rouge, LA | 0.2% | 568 | $3,447,259 | 419 | $265,000 |
| Eugene, OR | 0.1% | 151 | — | 234 | $455,000 |
| Lafayette, LA | 0.1% | 219 | $1,075,763 | -137 | $235,000 |
| Portland, OR | 0.1% | 819 | $114,444,740 | -2,196 | $560,000 |
| Nashville, TN | 0.1% | 490 | $158,408,065 | 2,854 | $457,500 |
| Albany, NY | 0.1% | 269 | $29,037,220 | -1,101 | $295,000 |
| Salisbury, MD | 0.0% | 110 | $7,818,145 | 2,862 | — |
| New Orleans, LA | 0.0% | 197 | $2,724,476 | 1,599 | $280,000 |
| Fort Collins, CO | 0.0% | 52 | $26,693,577 | 986 | $560,000 |
| Bangor, ME | 0.0% | 15 | $3,038,325 | 247 | $238,000 |
| Lincoln, NE | 0.0% | 37 | $687,824 | -113 | $283,000 |
| Clarksville, TN | 0.0% | 17 | $1,331,207 | 88 | $314,900 |
| Lexington, KY | 0.0% | 36 | $146,242 | -238 | $285,000 |
| Tampa, FL | 0.0% | 103 | $4,304,056 | 9,841 | $387,995 |
| Phoenix, AZ | 0.0% | 106 | $28,628,106 | 9,730 | $468,000 |
| Philadelphia, PA | 0.0% | 304 | $40,636,899 | 1,276 | $280,000 |
| St. Louis, MO | 0.0% | 80 | $6,887,923 | 984 | $251,000 |
| Rochester, NY | 0.0% | 36 | $23,645,214 | 543 | $221,000 |
| Augusta, GA | 0.0% | 12 | $3,145,454 | 107 | $280,250 |
| Syracuse, NY | 0.0% | 13 | $7,033,146 | 29 | $200,000 |
| Jackson, MS | 0.0% | 12 | $5,493,994 | 28 | $262,000 |
| Rochester, MN | 0.0% | 5 | $1,428,204 | -15 | $300,000 |
| Burlington, VT | 0.0% | 6 | $3,023,583 | -21 | $440,000 |
| Miami, FL | 0.0% | 22 | $23,588,116 | 12,614 | $475,000 |
| Cape Coral, FL | 0.0% | 2 | $1,942,572 | 7,015 | $399,999 |
| North Port, FL | 0.0% | 4 | $873,097 | 6,626 | $475,000 |
| Atlanta, GA | 0.0% | 38 | $19,907,488 | 4,151 | $390,000 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 0.0% | 1 | $304,423 | 3,818 | $375,000 |
| Virginia Beach, VA | 0.0% | 2 | $482,089 | 3,155 | $320,000 |
| Raleigh, NC | 0.0% | 19 | $9,385,670 | 2,711 | $448,800 |
| Spokane, WA | 0.0% | 3 | $4,723,084 | 2,637 | $435,000 |
| Charlotte, NC | 0.0% | 9 | $3,781,158 | 2,347 | $393,715 |
| Knoxville, TN | 0.0% | 4 | $3,934,141 | 2,252 | $340,000 |
| Wenatchee, WA | 0.0% | 1 | $75,519 | 1,924 | $551,961 |
| Greensboro, NC | 0.0% | 4 | $2,325,162 | 1,775 | $275,000 |
| Palm Bay, FL | 0.0% | 1 | $361,609 | 1,686 | $358,835 |
| Asheville, NC | 0.0% | 1 | $428,487 | 1,579 | $420,750 |
| Greenville, SC | 0.0% | 16 | $16,282,794 | 1,574 | $320,000 |
| Richmond, VA | 0.0% | 2 | $1,470,475 | 1,245 | $365,000 |
| Savannah, GA | 0.0% | 3 | $832,195 | 1,178 | $315,000 |
| Crestview, FL | 0.0% | 8 | $3,072,093 | 1,152 | $425,000 |
| Colorado Springs, CO | 0.0% | 9 | $3,228,430 | 1,145 | — |
| Columbus, OH | 0.0% | 8 | $2,868,957 | 1,112 | $320,000 |
| Ocala, FL | 0.0% | 1 | $332,365 | 1,089 | $282,900 |
| Grand Rapids, MI | 0.0% | 4 | $7,251,049 | 983 | $307,000 |
| Indianapolis, IN | 0.0% | 12 | $2,206,797 | 980 | $290,000 |
| Chattanooga, TN | 0.0% | 5 | $1,311,864 | 880 | — |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 0.0% | 7 | $1,281,002 | 858 | $234,950 |
| Columbia, SC | 0.0% | 5 | $1,548,079 | 797 | — |
| Allentown, PA | 0.0% | 11 | $4,223,239 | 757 | $310,000 |
| Harrisburg, PA | 0.0% | 7 | $4,207,255 | 749 | $255,000 |
| Orlando, FL | 0.0% | 4 | $942,506 | 688 | $394,995 |
| Cincinnati, OH | 0.0% | 17 | $45,892,916 | 538 | $265,000 |
| Birmingham, AL | 0.0% | 2 | — | 509 | $292,000 |
| Huntsville, AL | 0.0% | 2 | $451,482 | 292 | $340,623 |
| Buffalo, NY | 0.0% | 12 | $3,156,151 | 182 | $245,000 |
| Lancaster, PA | 0.0% | 4 | $1,329,080 | 165 | $300,000 |
| Green Bay, WI | 0.0% | 5 | $1,158,174 | 164 | $268,000 |
| Toledo, OH | 0.0% | 1 | $405,074 | 119 | $180,050 |
| Mobile, AL | 0.0% | 4 | $934,485 | 112 | $248,425 |
| Gulfport, MS | 0.0% | 2 | $872,952 | 99 | $230,000 |
| Dayton, OH | 0.0% | 5 | $1,606,828 | 84 | $205,000 |
| Youngstown, OH | 0.0% | 1 | — | 77 | $150,000 |
| Hickory, NC | 0.0% | 1 | $460,091 | 65 | $232,000 |
| Milwaukee, WI | 0.0% | 8 | $317,522 | -31 | $300,000 |
| Kalamazoo, MI | 0.0% | 4 | $6,916,411 | -66 | $245,000 |
| Madison, WI | 0.0% | 3 | $437,909 | -129 | $380,000 |
| Scranton, PA | 0.0% | 4 | $1,201,918 | -155 | $176,000 |
| Hilton Head Island, SC | 0.0% | 1 | $185,991 | -235 | $460,000 |
| Springfield, IL | 0.0% | 1 | $237,369 | -318 | $310,000 |
| Kennewick, WA | 0.0% | 2 | $1,918,455 | -338 | $445,121 |
| Peoria, IL | 0.0% | 2 | $347,276 | -343 | $144,450 |
| Columbus, GA | 0.0% | 3 | $1,091,402 | -355 | — |
| Louisville, KY | 0.0% | 6 | $1,328,835 | -465 | $256,000 |
| Lafayette, IN | 0.0% | 2 | $292,112 | -913 | $248,000 |
| Cleveland, OH | 0.0% | 2 | $775,038 | -924 | $219,000 |
| Chicago, IL | 0.0% | 16 | $3,945,676 | -4,769 | $321,500 |
| Detroit, MI | 0.0% | 2 | $1,163,880 | -7,334 | $199,500 |
| Seattle, WA | 0.0% | 16 | $7,386,894 | -18,594 | $785,000 |
| Washington, DC | 0.0% | 109 | $46,597,091 | -24,492 | $530,000 |
Methodology
The migration portion of this analysis is based on a sample of about two million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas in the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2021, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase. To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user must have viewed at least 10 homes in a particular metro area, and homes in that area must have made up at least 80% of the user’s searches. Net inflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave, while net outflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave an area than move in. The value of homes at risk is the sum of the Redfin Estimates of the homes’ market values as of August 22, 2022.
We used data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to calculate the share of homes in each metro that experienced severe, extreme or exceptional drought during the second week of August 2022 and the second week of August 2021. To be included in this analysis, a metro must have had at least one home experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought during the second week of August, and migration data for the second quarter.
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